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法国经济逐步恢复增长韧性
2017-08-30 06:22:00 中国青年网
法国经济学界对法经济增长态势表示乐观。法国统计局首席经济学家弗拉基米尔·帕斯隆指出:“较去年而言,2017年法国经济的不确定因素将明显减少,随着世界经济的整体复苏,法国出口贸易将持续增长。”另有法国经济学家认为“仍需要以谨慎的态度巩固当前的复苏态势”。近期公布的各项经济数据显示出法国经济复苏势头得到了延续,并逐步恢复了增长的韧性。但新政府仍然面临较为严峻的结构性难题。首先,法国失业率仍处高位,自年初以来,法国就业形势出现反复态势,就业刺激政策效果难以巩固,至今仍有580多万失业人口。其次,法国经济增速仍明显低于欧元区平均水平,作为欧盟第二大经济体的法国,其在加速经济增长方面仍面临巨大压力。再次,受通货膨胀影响,法国家庭购买力有所放缓,内需疲软将刺激进口增长,进而推升贸易赤字,为经济发展带来压力。最后,法国公共财政赤字高企。据相关预测,尽管法国此前推出了一系列大刀阔斧的“减负”计划,但到2017年末,公共财政赤字仍将占GDP的3.1%,高于欧盟标准。
该经济学家强调,新政府必须以坚定的改革意志,克服改革进程中出现的各种阻力,延续当前向好的经济复苏势头,进一步巩固经济增长韧性,抓住当前世界经济与欧盟经济整体复苏的机遇期。他指出:“法国政府当务之急是要将年初的经济复苏态势延续至下半年,巩固经济复苏基础,圆满完成新政府任期内的‘第一份答卷’,这也是法国当前推进各项改革的重要基础,消除民众对改革的疑虑与抵触情绪。”
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