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委内瑞拉90万军民超大规模联合军演 马杜罗呼吁抵御美国战争威胁

2017-08-27 13:56:43   央广网

值得注意的是美国计划对委内瑞拉动武遭到了多数拉美国家的坚决反对,就连美国在拉美的主要盟友反对马杜罗修宪最为强烈的秘鲁、哥伦比亚、阿根廷、墨西哥等国也都不支持军事干涉委内瑞拉。在此种背景下,美国国家安全顾问马斯特25日再次重申,短期内美国不会对委内瑞拉采取军事行动。美国国务院也表示,美方仍承认马杜罗政府的合法性,不考虑支持委内瑞拉反对派另立政府。就目前形势看,美国将对委内瑞拉进一步施加外交和经济制裁的可能性更大。

委内瑞拉与美国这轮的冲突升级,始于一个月前。7月30日,委内瑞拉举行制宪大会选举,8月4日制宪大会正式成立。于是,美国就开始限制对委内瑞拉公民发放签证。委内瑞拉《国民报》报道,6名前往美国大使馆的委内瑞拉人中,有5人声称被拒绝办理文件。记者和议员们也被拒签。

美国对委内瑞拉的制裁在一定程度影响了委内瑞拉国内局势。目前委内瑞拉通胀率飞升,生活必需品短缺,很多人为了生存开始从事“比特币”采矿,委内瑞拉的“比特币”用户数量从2014年8月的450人,猛增到8.5万人。

委内瑞拉将在今年10月举行地方选举,明年年底将举行总统大选,美国试图通过制裁对委局势发展施加影响。对此,总统马杜罗表示,美国刚宣布的金融制裁措施违反了国际法和联合国宪章,显示了美国在拉美地区寻求霸权的决心。

中国社科院拉美研究所研究员吴国平分析,特朗普刚刚宣布制裁,委内瑞拉就举行规模空前的“军民联合”演习,马杜罗意在借此告诉美国,“我有军队和民众的支持”。实际上他现在等于跟美国抗衡,因为美国副总统最近访问拉美后回国,特朗普马上出台了新制裁,这一次的制裁有点动真格,但是他还是给委内瑞拉留了余地。实际上是允许美国旗下的公司跟委内瑞拉的石油公司做生意。美国是层层施压,要让马杜罗最后恢复到以前的宪制状态。如果最后真的把他全逼上绝路了,最后受难的还是老百姓。但是马杜罗也是打着民族主义旗号,看美帝国主义并不升级封锁,要跟它直接抗衡,所以他喊出军民一条心要给美国看,表示他们时刻做好准备,如果打他们,他们随时准备反击。

委内瑞拉国防部长洛佩斯在近期一个电视直播讲话中曾说,美国觊觎委内瑞拉的石油储备,特朗普的军事威胁言论“疯狂”,说明美国已经“摘下面具”,有意进攻委内瑞拉。而马杜罗称,此次军演是应对美国的“战争威胁”。那么,美国和委内瑞拉两国在南美的博弈是否会升级呢?

吴国平认为,美国目前不会对委内瑞拉动武。美国此前对巴拿马也是派的军队,但是现在证明一个国家如果通过出兵,通过外来军事干涉去改变另一个国家的制度,在国际社会上会受到谴责,尤其是在拉美。拉美国家相对来讲民族主义占有一定号召力。如果另一个国家通过武力干涉改变一个国家的政治制度,无论是政府也好,还是民间也好都是坚决反对的。这个纯属是特朗普给他打的心理战,在实际行动上不会那么做。马杜罗也看到了这一点,跟特朗普也在打这个战术,告诉他“我有民意支持,有军队支持。”

军事选项虽然排在后面,经济手段已经用上。美国看不惯委内瑞拉现在的政局,接下来还会采取哪些手段?吴国平观察,鉴于目前委内瑞拉经济对美国尚有依赖,美国必定会在经济上步步施压。美国通过这一方面加剧了整个委内瑞拉经济的困境,进一步使得民众的心态发生变化。经济上的制裁还会升级,但不是针对个人,这一次体现出针对到委内瑞拉的经济。因为特朗普政府步步紧逼,他如果是做的过了,百姓的人道主义方面受到影响,也是不利的。所以美国实际上一步步施加压力,想导致马杜罗整个局势失控,从内部瓦解他。

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