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林毅夫报告惹争议 田国强:轻工业让市场发挥作用

2017-08-26 11:00:56   央广网

张可云则首先在学理层面分析了在比较优势理论的基础上改进而来的林毅夫“新结构经济学”并不适用于分析老工业基地。

他认为,根据区域病理分析,区域可分为四类,即发达区域、落后区域、膨胀区域(即患城市病的区域)与萧条区域(即老工业基地)。而比较优势理论只适用于分析发达区域与落后区域的分工与发展问题。

其原因在于,老工业基地与落后区域虽然都是问题区域,但有本质区别:老工业基地曾经高度辉煌过,只不过是由于“路径依赖”等原因衰落了,而落后区域从来就没有步入现代化的轨道,因此二者的发展条件、起点与需要解决的突出问题完全是不一样的。

他认为,破解老工业基地振兴难题,关键不在于寻找区域内的比较优势和识别区域内的要素禀赋优势,而在于从大范围区域乃至于全国或全球的环境变迁中发现有利于自身的发展机会并重新规划自身的发展定位。

他还认为,经济结构存在问题只是老化病的表现之一,而不是东北衰退的症结。经济增长速度放缓甚至是负增长、失业问题严重、人口大量外流等都是老的表现。

他提出,就吉林所在的东北地区而言,其关键症结在于技术人员的大量外流。“防止人口特别是技术人员流失比经济结构‘扬长补短’更为关键。保留住技术人才,是扬长避短的前提。”

林毅夫在《吉林报告》中为吉林开出了一副“五大万亿量级产业集群”的药方,其中的现代轻纺产业集群是此前遭到质疑最多的。对于这剂药方,张可云认为,附加值不高、劳动密集、技术含量不高的产业是否有利于优化吉林省的经济结构是令人怀疑的。人口密度低的吉林省在发展劳动密集型产业方面并没有优势。

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