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亚洲经济增长仍然充满活力

2017-08-24 05:27:08   中国青年网

亚行和IMF均上调了对中国今明两年经济增长的预期至6.7%和6.4%。亚行报告认为,上调中国今年经济增长预期,是由于中国净出口和国内消费增长的改善。IMF表示,上调预期反映了中国今年第一季度的强劲增长以及对持续财政支持的预期。

其他一些国际机构也调整了中国经济增长预期。渣打银行将2017年中国经济增速预期从6.6%上调至6.8%,并预计中国有望实现2010年以来首次加速增长;花旗银行将中国三、四季度经济增速预期,分别从此前的6.5%和6.4%上调至6.7%和6.6%,2017年全年GDP增速预期也从6.6%上调至6.8%。

IMF执行董事会成员认为,中国经济持续强劲增长为全球需求提供了重要支持,称赞中国政府在推动中国经济向服务和消费转型、实现经济再平衡方面持续取得进展;同时也注意到近期中国的经济活动有所巩固,认为这是中国政府加快推进必要改革、更多关注增长质量和可持续性的时机。IMF提出建议,继续提振消费和降低债务有利于中国保持强劲增长势头。

IMF注意到,中国政府已开始推出重要举措,促进私人部门去杠杆,因此信贷增速正在放缓,信贷缺口也在缩小。目前中国正在采取重要的监管措施防范金融部门风险,企业重组和削减过剩产能方面的举措使得企业债务增长速度放慢。

联合国亚洲及太平洋经济社会委员会经济学家乔斯·佩德罗萨—加西亚在接受本报记者采访时表示,中国经济正在实现再平衡,从依靠出口和投资转向依靠国内消费,而中国经济再平衡产生的溢出效益,也为周边及区域国家提供了发展机遇。加西亚认为,为了吸引更多的投资,中国政府采取了一些措施,例如简化了外商赴华投资的手续,放宽了金融领域投资限制,“这些政策都让我对中国经济前景十分乐观。”

亚洲各国必须继续实施稳健的宏观经济政策

IMF在《亚太地区经济展望》报告中指出,亚太地区仍继续保持强劲增长,但该地区的前景也有不确定性。分析认为,从长远发展来看,亚洲需要应对两大挑战:人口老龄化以及生产率增速缓慢。

报告估计,2020至2050年期间,在日本等相对老龄化的亚洲经济体,人口趋势可能导致年均国内生产总值增长率下降0.5至1个百分点。另外,IMF报告认为亚太地区未能赶上处于全球技术前沿国家的高生产率水平。信用评级公司穆迪在8月14日发布的一份报告中提到,提高劳动参与率和提高生产率有助于抵消劳动力人口增长放缓的消极影响,尤其是在人口较多的南亚经济体,女性和男性的劳动参与率仍存在很大差距。

另有分析指出,鉴于亚洲经济体的贸易开放度和与全球价值链的融合程度,它们特别容易受到保护主义的影响。全球范围转向内向型政策的趋势可能会抑制亚洲的出口并减少对亚洲的直接投资,而贸易和外国直接投资的下降可能对亚洲经济造成损害,因为这两个因素在传播技术和促进国内竞争方面发挥着至关重要的作用。

为了让亚洲经济更具弹性,确保可持续和包容性增长,中尾武彦认为,亚洲各国必须继续实施稳健的宏观经济政策,维持足够的财政空间和外汇储备,以缓冲和抵御未来可能面临的冲击。并且需要通过税收改革和提高税收征管水平,为基础设施建设和社会部门提供金融支持。

在充满活力的亚洲经济体中,改革重点也是各不相同。IMF报告指出,亚洲发达经济体应着重提高研发支出的效率,并提高服务业的生产率。对于新兴经济体和发展中经济体而言,在吸引外国直接投资、扩大经济吸收新技术和推动国内投资等方面采取措施提高能力,尤为紧迫。

(本报曼谷8月23日电)

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