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我国云量近十年增加了

2017-08-23 04:26:43   中国青年网

我国多云区域主要在西南地区东部、东北东部、新疆西北部。西南的云贵川地区、华南、江南等地云量非常多,超过65%,以贵州的湄潭为中心,年平均总云量最多可达到87%。这些地方云量多主要与西南季风、水汽供应充足和高原的动力作用有关。云量偏少的区域位于北方干旱区域,包括新疆北部、内蒙古东部、东北西部、华北北部、青藏高原等。其中北京、呼和浩特、拉萨等也属于少云的城市。青藏高原地域由于受夏季高原地形影响,空间分布比较复杂,总云量在35-65%之间。青藏高原东部云量多,西部云量少。西藏南部的江孜地区是高原总云量最少区域。

我国总云量分布与季风气候特征密切相关,呈现出明显的季节变化特征。一般来说,夏季是我国夏季风最强盛时期,暖湿气流供应充足,同时温度高,蒸发量大,从而形成了云量最多的时期,尤其5、6、7这三个月的平均总云量可达6-7成。而冬季影响我国的气流主要是西北干冷空气,同时温度低,蒸发量少,云朵难以形成,是一年中云量明显偏少的一段时间,12月平均总云量甚至不足4成。

近十年我国总云量明显上升

多云天致太阳能资源减少

统计表明,1961-2015年,我国平均总云量年代际变化特征明显,20世纪90年代中期以前呈减少趋势,而之后呈现反转趋势,总云量在波动中上升。尤其是最近十多年以来,我国年平均白天的总云量呈明显上升趋势。2015年全国平均总云量比常年偏多了0.27成。

全国各地云量的变化不尽相同,通过部分专家的研究发现,近几十年来,青藏高原、西南地区、西北地区等总云量的年际变化呈下降趋势,而华南和华中、北方部分地区、新疆北部等地总云量有增加的趋势。

大自然变化的奥秘是十分复杂的。关于近十年我国云量整体增加的原因,人们并不能得出肯定的结论,只是有人做过一些推测。比如有人认为是气溶胶含量增加引起的,也有人认为是气候变暖引发的效应。

云量的变化直接影响日照。2000年以来,我国日照时数明显减少,大多数年份低于常年平均值,这可能与云量增多有关。日照的长短与人类生活、农业生产密切相关,如果日照时数减少,可能影响人类的日常生活,例如,缩短人类皮肤的有效日晒时间,造成人类皮肤的免疫力下降、佝偻病和骨软化症的诱发机因增多,对人类健康产生影响。日照时数减少还可能对小麦、玉米、棉花、水稻等主要农作物的生长造成不利影响,甚至还可能影响作物的种植适宜区域。

此外,云量增加会减少地面所接受到的太阳能辐射量。2004年以来,我国云量超8成的日数渐增多,导致地面接收的太阳能辐射量渐减少。例如,2015年云量超过8成的比常年偏高7.2%,而太阳能资源为1476.1千瓦时/平方米,较平均值偏少24.8千瓦时/平方米。

有研究报告表明,2016年12月20日与12月某天气较良好日相比,北京、石家庄、郑州、西安、合肥等9地阴雨等天气导致空中云量明显增加,从而造成光伏发电量大幅下降,发电量降低幅度达54.9%-95.2%,其中西安、合肥降幅均超过90%。

2000年以来,我国年平均白天总云量呈明显上升趋势。云量的变化影响日照,近十多年我国日照时数显著减少,大部分年份低于常年平均值的2449小时。

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