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创业板刷新前高 行情中长期看好

2017-08-21 04:46:27   中国青年网

“目前处于低位的可关注。”卢宏锋认为,目前公布的是6月底的中报情况,从6月份到现在也有可能有减持的个股。那些可能没有大幅度上涨的个股值得关注,特别是那些没有大幅度增长、调整较为充分的个股。对涨幅过大的个股以观望为主,有可能这些个股在上涨后遭到“国家队”减持。

近一段时间以来,以钢铁、煤炭、有色、化工等为代表的周期类股票则保持了高度强势,在周期类个股大幅上涨的同时,业界关于“新周期”的争论也越发激烈。周期类个股后市是否存在上涨的空间,是否值得投资?

“周期性品种要区分行业来对待、来投资。”卢宏锋认为,煤炭行业要大幅度涨价可能性不大,目前已过了用煤高峰期,天气逐步转凉,用电量会有缩减。下半年,用电量减少之后,使用火电对煤炭需求减少,因此,煤炭价格继续大幅度上涨的空间并不大,有可能出现回调,煤炭价格大幅度上涨之后不宜追高。

目前,市场上的钢铁价格已经翻倍,短期钢铁价格再次大幅度上涨的空间不大,可能出现调整,钢铁也不适合追高。对于稀土来说,涨价对于国家出口有利。因此,稀土有进一步涨价的可能。国家可能整合小型矿厂,这有利于大企业的定价权,稀土会有所表现,其他有色小金属有上涨的可能。造纸业正处于下半年的包装业需求高峰期,纸价有一定的支撑甚至出现一定的上涨。

覃城说,近段时间,热点板块为钢铁、煤炭、有色,这些行业的业绩复苏受到供求关系的改善、价格的提升的影响,产生有利于其业绩的正面刺激,很多公司的业绩大幅度增加,甚至翻了几十倍。例如,中国铝业业绩近期翻了10倍,在股价上也有相应表现,有色钢铁在监管下调整,近几日反弹。他认为,周期性行情没有结束,下半年依然有机会,后市值得关注。

短期大盘仍有向上的反弹空间,但幅度不会很大。卢宏锋建议,如接近前期高点3300点左右,逢高减仓为主。最近,创业板表现强势,指数为三大指数最强,上周有短暂休整,有能力再创新高。未来一段时间,投资的重点依然在创业板和国企改革概念的个股,仓位可保持五至七成。

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