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中小创大涨尚难言风格转向

2017-08-15 11:16:37   中国经济网

太平洋证券首席市场分析师季晓隽接受本报采访时表示:主板的下跌还没有充分,预计未来几天仍延续跌势,即便中小创想涨,也必然受到主板走势的制约。创业板已经跌了两年多,跌幅超过60%,时间、空间都比较充分,一些股票逐步向合理估值区间回归,而且证金也增持了7个创业板股票,给市场一个正面的信号,提振市场信心。但整个创业板市盈率仍然偏高,深交所的统计,创业板目前动态市盈率为49.17倍,而根据一些行情软件统计,为62.93倍。综合来看,仍在50倍以上。只有30倍左右才合理。因此创业板还有下跌空间。但从技术形态看,创业板确实已经回到了2015年行情启动前的历史底部区域,很多股票都是在低位反弹,有一定的合理性。但如果主板未来几天无强势表现,中小创股票恐怕也难以支撑。

西南证券朱斌认为,创业板已经处于底部反弹过程中。今年以来的蓝筹股以及白马股涨幅已经相当可观,估值已经处于相对高位。因此,在经历不断的估值下行后,估值已经处于相对低位且一直被冷落的中小创开始逐渐被市场关注。当前创业板综指处于1600~1700的区间是相对明确的阶段性底部,从代表内生性增长的每股净资产、每股留存收益等指标都开始出现积极的信号,表明过去外延的负面影响已经逐渐从长周期角度,当前处于新一轮产业革命的前夕,相关行业的长期趋势开始向上。随着物联网+人工智能的产业快速发展,以设备连接数和底层技术传感器销量为指标,物联网产业有望在2018年开始迎来加速增长的拐点,由此推动A股成长型公司ROE的向上拐点。从短周期来看,流动性因素以及风险偏好都出现了边际改善,成长性公司有望迎来短期的估值修复。建议关注细分子行业中已经出现产业拐点的成长型公司,如新能源汽车产业链、动力电池产业链、苹果产业链、物联网产业链等。

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