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7月份中国经济数据 担忧中国经济下行实无必要

2017-08-15 10:08:31   央广网

根据国家统计局最新数据,工业方面,7月份,高技术产业增加值的增速是12.1%,装备制造业增加值的增速是10.7%,分别比规模以上工业增加值的增速要快5.7和4.3个百分点。在投资方面,传统的制造业投资增速在放缓,但高技术产业的投资、装备制造业投资都以比较高的速度在推进。基础设施投资里,环保领域投资大幅增长40%以上,比上年同期加快了13个百分点以上。就业形势稳中向好,城镇调查失业率7月是5.1%左右,较去年同期回落,城镇新增就业1-7月份增加了855万人,比上年同期多了20万人。

“7月份数据再次让市场看到,中国经济目前在结构转型升级、质量效益提升、创业创新发展及民生领域改善等多方面表现保持强势,而这些成绩体现的正是中国经济新旧动能的加快转换,是中国经济持续保持充足韧性的重要基础。”赵锡军说。

 稳定增长有保障

随着下半年首月经济数据的发布,我们又该怎么看当前中国经济和下一步的走势?毛盛勇提出了三个观点:第一,中国经济当前总体平稳、稳中有进、稳中向好。第二,从下半年来讲,中国经济稳中向好的态势能够延续下去,势头不会变。第三,从未来中长期来看,从发展空间和潜力、增长韧性、要素供给条件、改革创新红利不断释放等多个角度来看,中长期中国经济应该有条件维持中高速增长的水平。

具体就下半年经济而言,毛盛勇指出,从三大需求的角度来看,支撑下半年经济稳定增长是有条件的:在经济收入增长较快和消费结构升级步伐加快的情况下,消费还是有条件继续保持较快的增长速度;在国内市场供求不断改善,世界经济呈现复苏,而且企业的盈利能力不断提升的情况下,投资也有条件保持总体平稳;在一系列稳外贸、促外贸的政策效应不断显现,同时世界经济也呈现出比较明显的复苏态势,出口产品的竞争力在不断增强的情况下,出口有望延续回稳向好的态势。

“总的来讲,中国经济发展空间大,回旋余地多,并且正在进行供给侧结构性改革,强化自身素质,同时防止一些可能爆发的危险,尤其是金融领域的风险。相信只要抓好机会,可以维持6.5%以上的增长。”北京大学新结构经济学研究中心主任林毅夫说。

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