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特朗普扬言不排除对委内瑞拉动武 分析认为出兵可能性小

2017-08-13 14:42:01   央广网

此外,委内瑞拉国防部长和新闻部长也就特朗普的言论发表了讲话。

针对特朗普的表态,委内瑞拉国防部长洛佩斯当晚发表声明说:无论发生任何事情委内瑞拉军队将始终保卫国家主权完整,他指责美国的说法疯狂且极端。委内瑞拉新闻部长比列加斯在当天的电视讲话中说:美国此次对委内瑞拉的威胁前所未有的严重,这必然使委内瑞拉人民团结一致,拒绝干涉,共同保卫祖国。

有分析人士指出,拉美国家长期以来深受美国干涉之苦,美国若出兵委内瑞拉,势必将遭到所有拉美国家的集体反对,美拉关系将面临全面倒退的挑战。那么,特朗普此番表态到底想传递出怎样的信号呢?中国国际问题研究院美国研究所所长滕建群表示,特朗普的表态主要还是为了施压。特朗普政府面临内政和外交的双重压力。从内政来说,通俄门调查在不断向纵深发展,国际政治势力对于特朗普的挤兑如影相随。国会通过的制裁法案对特朗普总统权力加以限制。在外交上,在特朗普执政以后,他的外交重点更多在朝鲜半岛、中东、甚至在欧洲,拉美国家并不是他的重点经营的区域。目前来说的话,特朗普政府出兵的可能性不是很大,具体包括他没有做战争动员,参谋长联席会议主席邓福德马上要到亚洲活动,他并没有做好准备。

就在特朗普对委内瑞拉发出军事威胁的前一天,委内瑞拉总统马杜罗10日说,他已指示外交部长阿雷亚萨启动他与特朗普会晤的准备工作。他同时表示,委内瑞拉愿意与美国重建外交和政治关系,甚至建立合作关系。然而,白宫新闻处12日表示,特朗普拒绝了马杜罗提出的举行电话会谈的请求。如何理解特朗普的拒绝?滕建群分析,美国一直把委内瑞拉作为眼中钉肉中刺,不断的向他施压,马杜罗也知道美国在幕后一直操纵对于他的影响,美国以选举问题、释放政治犯问题、镇压国内民众问题为借口拒绝跟马杜罗进行面对面的谈判,这些都是双方力量此消彼涨的结果。

委内瑞拉与美国的关系自1999年委前总统查韦斯上台后一直处于紧张状态。两国自2010年7月以后一直没有互派大使。美国前总统奥巴马曾下令对多名委政府、军队高官和企业高管实施制裁。

特朗普上台后曾表示,委内瑞拉局势并不是其外交政策优先考虑的议题,但随着委紧张局势加剧,美对委态度日趋强硬。美委关系会否进一步恶化?和秘鲁、阿根廷等周边国家紧张关系不断升级的委内瑞拉,国内局势又将如何发展?滕建群分析,这是拉美地区主要政治领导人不断替换的结果。美国和委内瑞拉长期以来是死对头,但是有着千丝万缕的联系,特别是在石油方面的合作,双方的合作都不可或缺。大量委内瑞拉的石油送到美国进行精加工,然后返销到拉美国家。从长远看,双方的博弈更多的是在政治层面,经济层面的合作还会得以继续。

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