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跟着汇率去旅行 省出一趟宝岛游

2017-08-06 15:02:05   中国青年网

今年英镑相对于美元、欧元等西方主流货币的表现就糟多了。上周四,英镑对美元未能延续在1.30上方的反弹势头。尽管英国零售销售数据出现了大幅回升,但英镑对美元却大幅下挫至1.2950上下。当天英国没有公布宏观经济数据,但英国就脱欧问题与欧盟的谈判已经进行了四天,谈判代表们仍在原地踏步。投资人正密切关注英国和欧盟间的脱欧协商,若有任何迹象显示英国可能丧失单一市场准入最惠国待遇、或者将无法与欧盟达成协议,则可能会打击英镑。“英镑今夏可能维持疲软,风险在于政治局势带动英镑大幅下跌。”纽约梅隆银行策略师团队在致客户报告中表示。

对中国游客而言,今夏选择去英国旅游,汇率方面可能没有去年秋季英镑暴跌至8.2、8.3那般超值,但七八月份游览爱丁堡的感受还是要比10月下旬好很多。无论消费者是想陪伴孩子参观剑桥的国王学院,还是想在牛津市的彼斯特名牌购物村血拼,整个夏季都可以比较从容地安排购汇和结汇。

日元跌至年内最低,购物可刷支付宝

夏季日本游也是不错的选择。目前人民银行公布的100日元对人民币的汇率中间价已跌至6.0的年内最低水平。今年日元汇率的最高值出现在4月19日,为100日元对6.3491元人民币。若现在购汇5万日元,与4月份相比可以多换出2800日元,足够买一款资生堂的防晒霜了。

在过去一个月,日本央行是唯一一个明确承诺维持创纪录刺激措施的主要央行。日本央行行长黑田东彦已经暗示日元将在一段时期内维持基准利率不变。今年日本央行也没有调整货币政策,不过已经六次下调了CPI目标,进一步暗示超宽松货币政策时代将继续一段时间。但是,日元的低迷状态能否像日本央行希望的那样维持,目前还很难说。当前全球各主要国家的央行纷纷收紧货币政策。美国美联储“缩表”,加拿大央行七年以来首次加息,欧洲央行也已经把量化宽松购债行动的退出计划提上了议事日程。在这一背景下,日元政策可持续性是个问题。

无论日元下半年将如何表现,眼下去日本旅游还是很划算的。去年4月日本为刺激旅游业实施了新的免税店制度,免税商品范围从家电和服装扩大到化妆品、食品等各领域土产酒及甜点等地区特产。此外,在日本成田机场、羽田机场、东京大阪的高岛屋等很多地方消费可以刷支付宝。支付宝用户会员等级越高,汇率越划算。比如7月14日支付宝铂金会员的汇率低至100日元对人民币5.98元,黄金会员的汇率是100日元对人民币6元。

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