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专家解析中东新变局:断交风波并不意外 美国未得实惠
中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际战略研究室助理研究员肖河。摄影:金近
美国的中东政策是否影响了断交潮?
中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际战略研究室助理研究员肖河认为,这次沙特等国家“拉黑”卡塔尔,背后的美国因素并不大。虽然这次断交潮发生在特朗普访问沙特之后,但是特朗普出发前往沙特之前,美国国内的局势显然并不允许特朗普能够做出这样复杂的外交计划。第一,特朗普出访前,应该按照计划为联邦调查局长职位提出人选,可特朗普团队并未能选出,可见这一段时间他应该无暇策划这起断交潮事件。第二,行前白宫的宣传口号是“团结整个穆斯林世界”,但是最终结果是美国盟友之间的对抗和分裂。而在5五月份对中东的访问中,特朗普总体表现是要安抚伊斯兰世界,缓解疑虑,而不是进一步挑起冲突。此外在特朗普竞选总统辩论时,曾表示卡塔尔是基础设施建设的正面典型,看得出来当时他对卡塔尔的印象还很不错。第三,美国内部对中东的政策不统一,各种举措之间互相抵消了影响。在此次断交事件发生的当天,美国国务卿蒂勒森、国防部长马蒂斯分别表示,希望有关各方能够通过协商解决分歧。6日,特朗普发推表示支持中东国家孤立卡塔尔,并敲打伊朗。而第二天,特朗普与卡塔尔元首埃米尔·塔米姆通电话,他在通话中表示,愿意提供帮助,调停卡塔尔的这一危机。特朗普还说,如果有必要,愿意邀请相关国家到白宫进行会谈。9日,蒂勒森表示各国应当立即解除对卡塔尔的经济封锁,进行外交努力。14日,马蒂斯签署命令放行对卡塔尔36架F-15战机的军售。这些说明美国内部对中东政策的意见没有达到协调一致。
肖河认为,美国对此次断交潮的表态,不像是早有分工的表态差异,没有时间的先后性,几乎都是同时发声,信号非常混乱。没有起到向卡塔尔施压的效果,对卡塔尔的军售不是“收货”,更像是“赔礼道歉”的性质。同时,沙特在王储继承序列问题上也需要美国的支持(之前奥巴马一直表示按照顺序进行),对于沙特而言,相较王储继位顺序问题,卡塔尔只是小问题,即便特朗普不对卡塔尔强硬,沙特和美国的军售仍然会进行。总体上,在卡塔尔事变中,沙特一方获得最多,美国则显得准备不足,手足无措,没有实惠,也损失了声望。
“中东新变局:从断交事件说起”主题沙龙活动现场。摄影:金近
沙特与卡塔尔何时会恢复外交关系?
对于国际在线微博上的粉丝关于“沙特与卡塔尔何时会恢复外交关系”的问题,龚正回答道,2014年,沙特等国家就曾召回过驻卡塔尔大使,这一情况持续了八个月,后来经过调解,事情得以解决。龚正认为这次程度似乎比上次严重得多,时间可能更长。
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