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这次受伤的为什么又是英国?内忧+外患,梅姨如何接招?

2017-05-24 08:14:25   国际在线

根据目前的消息,欧盟与英国之间的脱欧谈判,将在英国大选的11天后启动,也就是在6月19日正式开启,但是目前双方分歧很大,主要集中在分手费问题上。欧盟要求英国支付最高达1000亿欧元的脱欧账单,但英国拒绝了这一要求,称从未看过欧盟的账单,同时还反过来要求欧盟支付英国在欧洲投资银行及其他联合项目中的投资收益,据估计这笔数目高达数十亿英镑。

如果双方在分手费问题上不能达成妥协,那么后续的谈判就很难开展。英国威胁说谈不拢就退出谈判,但如果真是这样“硬脱欧”的话,英国经济无疑会遭受重创,伦敦金融城的影响力也会下降。

  对英国大选有何影响?

从袭击时机来看,英国定于6月8日举行大选,此时发生袭击事件,不排除恐怖分子因对保守党强硬移民政策不满、想在这一阶段制造更大的混乱。但事实上,这一事件可能更加巩固保守党的优势地位。

最新民调显示,执政的保守党的支持率为46%,工党的支持率为33%。虽然执政党暂时领先,但现在面对的可能是英国最困难的时候:一方面英国要开启脱欧谈判,另一方面苏格兰公开提出要举行第二次独立公投。此时发生恐袭事件,肯定会加重公众的不安情绪,要求收紧移民政策的呼声会更高。

众所周知,英国首相特蕾莎·梅在移民政策问题上的态度一直是比较强硬的。她以前在民政部任职的时候,最为人熟知的政策大多就是主张限制移民的。前两天,特蕾莎·梅又说,如果下个月她能在选举中获得胜利,保守党会兑现每年减少上万移民的承诺。因此,在恐怖事件造成公众恐慌的背景下,保守党可能会巩固甚至提升支持率,增加在大选中胜算的机会。

但更要看到,目前存在着一个恶性循环:恐袭事件导致更多排外对立的情绪产生,而这种情绪,又反过来导致有些族群仇恨的增加与极端思想的传播,导致更多恐袭事件的发生。所以,无论是哪个党派赢得英国大选,仅仅靠收紧移民政策是难以解决问题的,根本上还是要从经济的复苏、就业的增加、文化的融合等方面多想些办法。(文/盛玉红)

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