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回顾历史,刁大明指出,此前三次针对总统弹劾危机的出现,都在国会“强分裂”的情况下发生的,即共和、民主两党分别控制参众两院。目前国会两院都是共和党掌控,弹劾共和党总统的可能性,从政党斗争层面看,可能性也很小。
“一个非常微弱的潜在变数就是共和党对特朗普的支持情况,”刁大明说,“如果共和党对事件的表态没有塌方式的松动,就没有弹劾总统的实际危险”。
刁大明认为,这一事件继续显示美国党派间激烈持续的斗争。大选失利的民主党阵营希望事件持续发酵,最大理想目标就是实现对特朗普的弹劾,现实一些的目标就是拖延特朗普的内外政策议程,为2018年中期选举甚至是2020年大选谋篇布局。同时,美国传媒也有很大作用,关于这些悬而未决的争议中的很多关键点甚至一些起点都是美国媒体曝出的,可见他们在特朗普与媒体不睦的状况下,也是迫切需要发挥所谓的“第四权力”来制衡白宫。
此外,特朗普政府内部也持续存在着所谓的“泄密”现象。刁大明认为,这些内部人士的爆料也成为引爆众多事件的关键环节,这也凸显了特朗普团队内部特别是核心小圈子专业度的缺失和持续内斗。(夏文辉)(新华社专特稿)
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