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伊朗本次总统选举实际上就在两人之间展开现任总统鲁哈尼和下任领袖热门人选莱希。鲁哈尼的优势是现任总统,在过去4年中带领伊朗取得一些发展成就;劣势是民众对其领导下的国家发展速度不满意。莱希的优势是有宗教势力和其他相对保守力量的支持,劣势是日益增多的伊朗人特别是青年对宗教影响的无处不在和保守派本身就有一些看法。
由于工作关系,笔者在前一段接连造访伊朗西北和中南部的多个城市,发现总统竞选海报绝大部分都是鲁哈尼和莱希的。近日笔者又在德黑兰更加近距离地观察总统大选,作为伊朗政治之都,德黑兰的选举氛围自然是其他城市所不能比拟。除了遍布街头的宣传海报外,德黑兰还有为数不少的人分发支持各自候选人的材料,特别是晚上,主要街道、广场有很多人围绕本次总统选举进行激烈辩论,当然为了安全警察等安全力量也有部署。从现场来看,现任总统鲁哈尼的支持者为数众多,而且气势相当旺盛,不过,尽管他们自认为鲁哈尼占有一定优势,但是仍然多有担忧,担忧之一就是对参加总统选举投票的人数不放心,担心届时很多人不会参加投票,他们认为这样是不利于鲁哈尼的。
距离5月19日投票的时日已经不多,候选人的竞选活动又要在德黑兰时间18日早上8点停止,可以预见,在接下来的有限时间内,鲁哈尼和莱希的选举团队和支持者必定会使出浑身解数,为最终赢得大选奋力一搏。(范鸿达 厦门大学政治系教授)
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