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大飞机撬动国内9000亿市场蛋糕 尚需破除两道难关

2017-05-08 01:21:19   经济参考报

第一道难关是进度风险。C919大型客机首飞后,即将开展的试飞和适航取证,对我国来说是全新的课题,其进度存在一定的风险。在C919之前,有一款被称为国产大飞机影子工程的ARJ21飞机,它在试飞过程中就碰到了进度风险。

据记者了解,由于很多试飞课目都是第一次进行,不少试飞大纲都是第一次编写,加上中国民航局审查组要求100%试飞课目抽查,ARJ21飞机试飞的工作量约为波音、空客试飞工作量的2-3倍,试飞完成的时间因此不断延长。C919比ARJ21更为复杂,之前国内谁也没对民用大飞机进行过试飞,进度风险可想而知。C919总设计师吴光辉表示,有了ARJ21在适航取证方面的探索,相信C919的适航取证可以少走弯路。

第二道难关是市场风险,特别是国际市场的风险。C919研制出来后,国内市场可以通过国家手段进行扶持,但要顺利进入国际市场难度非常大。根据国际惯例,飞机投入市场必须取得适航认证,也就是飞机的市场准入证,但是我国民用飞机拿到美国、欧洲的适航认证还有难度,这意味着全球最大的两个航空市场国产民机进入难度较大。同时波音公司研制的新型737 MAX系列客机和空客研制的新型A320neo系列客机,与C919飞机的市场定位有些重合,使得C919面临市场压力。

此前,上海召开的第一届中欧民用航空安全年会上,中国民用航空局(CAAC)和欧洲航空安全局(EASA)代表介绍,国产大型客机C919目前正在接受中国民航局的适航审定,同时将作为中欧双边适航谈判的一部分。随着国产大型客机的设计研制受到越来越多的市场认可,投入中欧航线仍然有望推进。

大飞机锻造产业“黄金龙骨”

民机的研制是一个系统工程,不仅要有研制能力、试飞能力,还要有产业带动能力。一款民机产品是否成功,不仅取决于技术上的突破,更体现其在商业上的应用。其标准在于飞机的安全性、经济性和舒适性能否得到市场的认可。

“民机和军机不一样,军机需要高科技、大投入、长周期,民机虽然也需要高科技,但要有成本控制的意识,尽可能缩短周期,来满足市场变化的需要。”中国空气动力学专家、原上海飞机设计研究院特聘专家张锡金说。

中国民机产业经过几十年的摸索,明确了“产业化、市场化、国际化”的发展方向,“自主研制、国际合作、国际标准”的技术路线,“中国设计、系统集成、全球招标、逐步提升国产化”的发展原则和“主制造商-供应商”发展模式。C919在设计之初就瞄准了市场需求,为其走向国际市场奠定了坚实的基础。

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