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GDP首破90万亿 GDP增速破“6.5” 未来并不悲观

2019-01-21 14:44:37   第一财经 

原标题:中国GDP首次突破90万亿,多家机构火速解读

国家统计局21日发布数据显示,2018年我国国内生产总值(GDP)900309亿元,首次突破90万亿元大关。按可比价格计算,GDP比上年增长6.6%,实现了6.5%左右的预期发展目标。分季度看,一季度同比增长6.8%,二季度增长6.7%,三季度增长6.5%,四季度增长6.4%。

从需求看,全年全国固定资产投资比上年增长5.9%,增速比前三季度加快0.5个百分点。全年社会消费品零售总额比上年增长9.0%,保持较快增长。全年货物进出口总额比上年增长9.7%,贸易总量首次超过30万亿元,创历史新高。

国家统计局局长宁吉喆在当天举行的国新办发布会上表示,2018年,经济社会发展的主要预期目标较好完成,三大攻坚战开局良好,供给侧结构性改革深入推进,改革开放力度加大,人民生活持续改善。

对此,多家机构火速做出解读,以下为要点汇总:

华泰宏观李超:GDP增速破“6.5” 继续看好利率债和基建类城投债

华泰宏观李超团队认为,经济下行压力仍然存在,预计2019全年经济增速继续下滑到6.3%左右。中央经济工作会议将“逆周期调节”及“稳定总需求”放在首位,充分体现政策以稳为主的总基调。财政政策方面,预计今年减税降费累计将超2018年总体水平;货币政策预计将逐渐由灵活适度转向稳健略宽松,未来稳社融增速将充分调动银行积极性,可能从鼓励银行增加信贷投放及信用债购买等角度展开,同时可能出台更多的结构性宽松措施;预计上半年政策将着力改善小微企业经营环境、以及应对可能的失业率上行问题。

此外,华泰宏观表示,基于稳增长的考量,政策方面给出明确信号,要引导金融机构保障融资平台公司合理融资需求,我们仍较为看好基建类城投债的表现。经济基本面因素决定债市无风险利率仍有下行空间,预计今年我国10年期国债收益率中枢为3%、底部为2.8%。

海通宏观姜超:经济寡淡收官 未来并不悲观

海通宏观姜超表示,2018年经济寡淡收官,其中投资、消费增速均创下多年新低。往前看,社会融资、地产销售两大领先指标仍未见底,意味着2019年上半年经济或仍在寻底。但从去杠杆向稳杠杆的转变,意味着货币和融资增速有望见底企稳。财政减税有望继续发力,提升居民消费和企业创新潜力,意味着内需将有改善希望。而随着通胀的回落,我们将步入低利率时代,金融资产将取代实物资产成为配置首选。

中泰宏观:下行速度将加快,政府加杠杆稳增长

中泰宏观表示,2018年以来,GDP增速从1季度的6.8%大幅回落至6.4%,经济下行压力逐渐增大。从政策反应来看,货币政策逐步宽松,但信用创造渠道依然被堵,宽信用效果较弱。再加上居民和企业杠杆率高企,房价泡沫膨胀,融资需求或在今年趋于下降。今年政府部门、尤其是中央政府加杠杆会成为稳增长主要发力点,基建增速有望反弹。但考虑到去年上半年基数较高,预计今年上半年经济下行速度将加快。回归新常态增长,推动改革开放,才能推动经济可持续的高质量增长。

责任编辑:周晶晶 CN032
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