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今年前7个月我国就业形势总体平稳——稳就业关键在于破解结构性矛盾

2017-08-24 17:26:36   中国经济网

压力仍然不小

不少专家表示,当前,我国正处于经济增速换挡的阶段,加之供给侧结构性改革的持续推进,特别是去产能的实施以及“僵尸企业”的加速出清,未来的就业仍将面临不小压力。

冯俏彬认为,随着经济结构调整的持续推进,一些行业加速淘汰落后产能或压缩产能规模后,必然会导致一批劳动力面临下岗或失业。这部分群体在劳动力市场上往往不具备较强的竞争能力,这将给后续的就业安置带来不小压力。

“另一个规模庞大的群体则是新大学毕业生。”冯俏彬说,我国每年的大学毕业生规模庞大,2017年中国毕业生总数接近800万人,增量与增幅均超往年。这些大学生刚刚从象牙塔里走向社会,对自身的未来、机会、前景都有比较高的期待。但是,这个群体与社会接触又往往比较少,职业技能仍然需要锤炼,在就业市场上的竞争力相对较弱。

徐洪才也认为,在我国推进去产能和僵尸企业退出的过程中,大量职工需要安置和再就业。对这些职工的知识结构和岗位技能进行新一轮培训既需要花费不小的成本,也许需要一定的时间,而且有些员工的思想观念转变也需要过程。这些因素都将给安置工作带来更多不确定因素。同时职业教育本身也存在短板,很多企事业单位舍不得花钱进行在岗培训。此外,我国在一些高精尖领域的人才较为缺乏,“大路货”的人才供给又比较多,就业的供给和需求结构不匹配问题突出,也将成为一大掣肘。

“近年来,由于大学不断扩招,新型城镇化不断推进,而经济增速却处于换挡过程中,特别是外需不振、产能过剩、僵尸企业苟延残喘,这些因素都在不同程度上加剧了我国的就业压力。”国家治理协同创新中心研究员杨枝煌指出,随着城镇化进城的不断加快,越来越多农村剩余劳动力向城市转移。而从另一个角度看,去产能的持续推进客观上造成了就业载体减少;而人工智能的推广应用,在未来也将进一步挤压对一般技能岗位的用工需求。总的来看,我国就业总量压力依然庞大,结构性矛盾持续存在,部分地区部分行业就业问题仍然突出。

也有专家指出,目前,很多传统工业企业将“显性失业”转化为“隐性失业”,常见的手段有降薪、缓发工资、停薪留职、内部休假、推迟入职。这种“隐形失业”不如“下岗潮”来得扎眼,但它无形中侵蚀着员工的福利和社会稳定的防线。

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