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7月份国民经济运行成绩单发布:数据波动不改经济平稳向好趋势

2017-08-15 06:32:37   中国经济网

毛盛勇说,近期一些国际机构纷纷调高了对中国经济今年和明年的增长预期,这说明不管是从生产消费的角度看,还是从国内国际的角度看,中国经济向好势头在延续,外界对中国经济下一步的走势是看好的,是有信心的。

季节性因素影响较大

值得注意的是,从7月份当月数据看,我国部分主要经济指标同比增速较上月出现了回落。

“这些指标的月度数据波动在很大程度与高温或洪涝的季节性因素有关。”毛盛勇表示,从统计学来讲,最好的比较方法是和上年同期比,这样能规避一些季节变动带来的因素。不过,即便是和上年同期比,今年7月份也有不少特殊的季节因素。

以工业增加值指标为例。7月份全国规模以上工业增加值同比实际增速比上月回落1.2个百分点。

“从去年3月份以后,工业增加值每个月的增速基本稳定在6.0%以上。今年以来,只有3月份和6月份高于7%,其他多数月份都在6.0%至6.5%之间,所以7月份的6.4%实际上是一个比较合理的水平。”毛盛勇说,7月份规模以上工业增速比6月份有所放缓,一是因为今年7月份全国大面积的高温天气。在高温酷暑之下,停产检修的企业比上年明显增加。二是南方地区洪涝灾害对工业生产带来了影响。三是按照新发展理念的要求,一些地区正加快淘汰环保不达标的过剩产能。

尽管7月份工业增速较上月有所回落,但工业内部升级态势明显。7月份高技术产业增加值增速为12.1%,装备制造业增加值增速为10.7%,分别比规模以上工业增加值的增速要快5.7%和4.3个百分点,表明制造业加快向中高端迈进的趋势比较明显。

重点关注提质增效

“尽管月度数据有所波动,但按照经济运行的内在规律和惯性,下半年中国经济能够延续总体平稳的态势。”毛盛勇说,近年来中国经济增长的平稳性在不断增强。过去8个季度,中国GDP增速基本都稳定运行在6.7%至6.9%之间。中国经济增速日趋平稳,是中国经济发展阶段的必然反映,也是中国经济结构调整深化的必然结果。

“从三大需求看,支撑下半年中国经济稳定增长是有条件的。”毛盛勇说,在经济收入增长较快和消费结构升级步伐加快的情况下,消费有条件继续保持较快的增长速度;在国内市场供求不断改善,世界经济呈现复苏,而且企业盈利能力不断提升的情况下,投资有条件保持总体平稳;在一系列稳外贸、促外贸的政策效应不断显现,同时世界经济也呈现出比较明显的复苏态势,出口产品竞争力不断增强的情况下,出口有望延续回稳向好的态势。

“即使是下半年经济增速放缓0.1个或者0.2个百分点,这也是一种合理、正常的小幅波动。这样一个速度在全球主要经济体中仍然是名列前茅的。”毛盛勇表示,更重要的是,近年来中国经济呈现出比较明显的结构优化调整的态势,经济运行的质量和效益不断提升,包括就业、收入、物价等民生指标也不断改善。

毛盛勇说,近年来,中国经济一直稳定运行在合理区间,经济工作的着力点和主要精力应该放在推进结构调整和转型升级上。中国经济不仅要追求“块头”大,更得要有强健的“肌肉”。从这个角度说,我们应更多关注中国经济的提质、增效、升级。(经济日报·中国经济网记者 林火灿)

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