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卡塔尔宣布退群 全球油价掌舵者闹分裂

2018-12-03 18:00:00    海外网

卡塔尔宣布退群 全球油价掌舵者闹分裂

  石油输出国组织。图片来源:网络

就在石油输出国组织(OPEC)今年最后一次例会即将召开之际,OPEC的一个成员宣布退群了。

12月3日,卡塔尔能源大臣萨达(Saad al-Kaabi)在新闻发布会上宣布,卡塔尔将于2019年1月1日退出OPEC。他表示,卡塔尔这一决定是“技术和战略性的”,未来卡塔尔会将能源生产的主要精力放在液化天然气上。

受卡塔尔这一决定的影响,国际油价出现短线下跌,布伦特原油现价报62.27美元/桶,WTI原油现价报53.54美元/桶。

卡塔尔这一决定是OPEC成立以来首次有海湾国家宣布退出,也意味着该国结束了半个多世纪以来在原油出口事务上与海湾阿拉伯国家站在一起的历史。

事实上,卡塔尔这一举动可以被视为去年其遭遇的 一系列外交孤立事件的后续。2017年6月5日,巴林、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、埃及、也门、利比亚、马尔代夫和毛里求斯等国,以卡塔尔长期坚持“动摇巴林国家稳定和安全”和“干涉巴林国家内政”,支持恐怖主义活动并破坏地区安全局势为由,宣布与卡塔尔断交,制造了海湾国家最大的外交纠纷。

而一年多之后,尽管有美国和科威特的调停,卡塔尔与这些国家、特别是沙特之间的外交关系并没有恢复的迹象。从政治层面上来看,卡塔尔继续留在由沙特主导的OPEC内,本身就没有太大意义,有分析认为,在退出OPEC之后,卡塔尔还有可能退出海湾合作委员会,从而进一步提高自己的独立性。从技术层面看,卡塔尔退出OPEC、摆脱配额限制可能会使其在原油生产和出口方面具有更大自主权。

其次,从能源结构来看,与大部分OPEC国家不同,卡塔尔的主要能源出口品其实并不是原油,而是液化天然气。卡塔尔的原油产量在OPEC国家内仅排到第11位,彭博社的数据显示,10月份卡塔尔的原油产量为每天61万桶,不到OPEC原油总产量的2%;而卡塔尔坐拥全球第三大天然气储量,是全球第一大液化天然气出口国。国际天然气联合会(International Gas Union)的数据显示,2016年卡塔尔出口了7720万吨天然气,相当于全球总供给量的1/3。

当然,卡塔尔退出OPEC的举动可能进一步扩大它与海湾其他阿拉伯国家之间业已存在的裂痕,将海湾国家之间围绕地区领导权的争夺进一步升级。由于卡塔尔最主要的一块气田是与伊朗共享,卡塔尔加大在天然气领域的投资与生产,也将进一步促进两国之间的合作,这也有可能进一步加剧卡塔尔与沙特之间的矛盾,对海湾地区和中东地区来说,可能也将是另一个潜在的不安定因素。(海外网评论员 聂舒翼)

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