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全球人口2050年将达98亿:老龄化加剧 生态威胁增多

2018-07-13 07:21:10    中国经济网

联合国经济和社会事务部人口司司长约·翰威尔莫斯说,2010年—2015年期间,“全世界女性一生平均生育2.5胎,但这个数字在世界各地差异很大。欧洲的生育率最低,估计最近一段时间每名妇女生育1.6个孩子;而非洲的生育率最高,每名妇女大约生育4.7个孩子。”

该报告称,47个最不发达国家的出生率仍然相对较高,人口年增长率约为2.4%。虽然未来几十年这一速度可能显著放缓,但这些国家的总人口预计将从现在的约10亿增加到2050年的19亿。

当一对夫妻生育大约两名可以活到育龄年龄的孩子时,人口保持不变。但报告称,现在越来越多国家的生育率低于这一水平。2010年—2015年间,83个国家的生育率低于这一水平,占世界人口的46%。生育率较低的10个人口较多的国家是中国、美国、巴西、俄罗斯、日本、越南、德国、伊朗、泰国和英国。

除了人口增长放缓外,低生育率水平也导致人口老龄化。英国《每日邮报》7月11日援引路透社的报道称,据估计,60岁或以上人口将从目前的9.62亿(占全球人口的12.3%)增加到2050年的21亿(约占全球人口的22%),增加一倍以上,到2100年将增加两倍,达到31亿。

生态威胁增多

物理学家组织网的报道指出,人口不断增长也给地球带来了极大负担。在数万年或更长的地质时期,人类一直在不断动用地球的不可再生资源“储蓄账户”,消耗和污染资源,包括含水层、冰盖、肥沃的土壤、森林、渔业和海洋等等。

而且,富裕国家的消费也与其人口不成比例。环境智库世界观察研究所提供的数据称,为了满足生活所需,地球上每人需要1.9公顷土地,而美国人平均用地约9.7公顷。如果都以美国人的标准生活,那么,地球最多只能养活目前约五分之一的人口——15亿人。

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