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述评:美国应当记取历史教训

2018-06-17 21:21:01    新华网

虽然特朗普政府希望通过关税保护令制造业岗位回流美国,但最近加征的钢铝关税也会使美国整体经济损失更多就业岗位。美国世界贸易咨询公司公布的一项研究显示,钢铝关税将令美国钢铁和铝业增加约3.3万个就业岗位,但同时将导致依赖进口钢铝产品的其他行业损失约17.9万个工作岗位,因此新关税预计将导致美国净损失约14.6万个工作岗位。

其三,美国单边贸易工具广受诟病,政策效果受到质疑。

上世纪七八十年代美国政府曾将单边主义工具“301调查”作为解决贸易不平衡和打开外国市场的主要手段。但根据凯托学会贸易专家斯科特·林西科姆的研究,美国政府1975年至1994年期间发起的72项“301调查”中,超过一半的调查最终都未实现主要政策目标。

由于“301调查”遭到美国贸易伙伴的广泛批评且效果有限,1995年世贸组织成立后,“301调查”就基本被美国政府束之高阁。世贸组织争端解决机制成为全球各方解决贸易纠纷的权威平台。

但在“美国优先”的零和思维指引下,今年年初以来特朗普政府频频挥舞单边贸易保护主义大棒,绕开世贸组织,相继对进口洗衣机、光伏组件和钢铝产品加征关税,对进口汽车及零配件启动国家安全调查,并抛出对华商品加征关税清单,大有挑起全球贸易战之势。

美国的种种贸易“霸凌”行为显然背离经济全球化、生产要素跨境流动的时代大势,违背世贸组织规则和国际社会数十年来苦心营造的基本经贸规范,已在全球范围内遭到强烈反对。中国、欧盟和加拿大等经济体都已宣布针对美方的反制措施。

林西科姆指出,美国建国以来的历史反复证明,贸易保护主义不仅给美国消费者和整体经济增加了巨大的经济成本,也未能实现决策者的主要政策目标,反而进一步强化了美国的政治体制失灵。如果美国决策者不重温历史,及时调整政策,那么注定将会重犯颠覆性的历史错误,政策失败的后果将更为严重。

作为全球最大的两大经济体,打贸易战既不符合中美双方利益,也不符合时代潮流,更不利于世界经济长久稳定。以史为鉴,理性看待中美经贸关系大局和局部摩擦,与中方通过平等谈判协商找到双赢的解决方案,共同维护开放的以规则为基础的多边贸易体系,才是美方应有之举。

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