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全球黄金总需求量将上升1.5% 中国市场领涨黄金需求

2018-04-18 07:25:17    中国经济网

年鉴预计,2018年全球黄金总供应量将微升0.5%。其中,矿产金供应量预计将再度上升,延续近10年来产量逐年上升的态势,但是年同比增长率将从2009年创出的峰值8.2%降至今年的0.1%。

实际上,2016年全球矿产金供应量的增速已放缓至1.8%,2017年更进一步放缓至0.5%,总供应量为3292吨,较2016年仅增加17吨。

不过今年全球再生金供应量有望增长2%,该增长将几乎完全来自发展中国家。其中,中国首饰产品组合正发生变化,首饰供应链内的厂商把越来越多的存货熔炼再生,因此再生金供应量可能重返增长轨道。

因供应有限而需求旺盛,黄金价格一直较高。据估算,截至2017年底,有史以来累计开采的黄金总量已超过18.7万吨。近二三十年来,私人部门黄金持有量增长很快,单在2010年至2017年期间,私人部门黄金总持有量就上升逾1万吨,现已超过官方部门的黄金总储备量。

黄金需求潜力大

当前,全球黄金需求量亦呈走高的趋势。年鉴预计,今年全球黄金总需求量将上升1.5%,首饰业和工业部门的黄金需求量都将走高,实物黄金投资需求量也有望回升。

其中,首饰业的黄金需求量增长将主要来自中国和印度。2017年,中国黄金首饰销售回暖,2018年迄今,该升势延续。中国经济状况向好,消费者信心增强,被认为是推动中国首饰消费量回升的主要力量。

同时实物黄金投资需求上升,这源自价格预期改善,投资者渴求避险资产,中国市场则将是主要增长源。此外,电子工业部门的需求增长,推高今年工业部门的黄金需求量。

中国黄金协会党委书记、会长宋鑫认为,“未来随着黄金避险保值和贮藏财富的功能被越来越多的人长期看好以及高端消费的不断升温和二三线城市消费需求的崛起,中国市场对实物黄金投资消费产品的需求有着巨大的潜力。”

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