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特朗普拒绝承认伊朗守约 伊核协议添变数

2017-10-15 07:32:54   

三国领导人还对伊朗开发弹道导弹计划及相关行动表示担忧,称这一计划和相关行动影响欧洲安全。

俄罗斯外交部13日晚间发表声明说,俄方对特朗普的决定表示遗憾,但同时视它为美国国内法律框架下的内部讨论,希望它不会对伊核协议的履行进程产生直接影响。

■ 分析

特朗普推出“两全之策” 伊核协议前景难料

分析人士指出,特朗普当天宣布的决定是白宫方面经过数月内部讨论后推出的“两全之策”:既充分表达了特朗普对伊核协议一贯的批判态度和对伊朗“破坏地区稳定行为”的强烈不满,又避免了立即退出协议对美国的国际声誉可能造成的灾难性后果。

然而,特朗普拒绝认定伊方履行核协议承诺后,将这一难题抛给国会,此举势必将激化伊核问题,为协议的前景带来相当大的不确定性。

根据伊朗核问题协议审查法案,一旦特朗普认定伊朗没有遵循协议,美国国会将在60天内决定是否恢复此前被中止的对伊制裁。鉴于当前共和、民主两党分裂严重,目前尚难预料国会将如何应对这一棘手问题。

华盛顿智库布鲁金斯学会资深研究员苏珊娜·马洛尼指出,如果国会选择对伊朗施加类似以前被中止的制裁措施,伊方很可能退出伊核协议。因此,特朗普的举措实质上开启了逐步“侵蚀”伊核协议的进程。

法国塞吉-蓬图瓦兹大学副教授朱利安·扎里菲安认为,特朗普的决定相当模糊,背后存在政治算计:一方面表现了对伊核协议的强硬态度,向自己的政治阵营及包括以色列和部分中东国家在内的美国盟友释放了强烈信号;另一方面则将球踢给国会,由国会作出最终决定。

欧盟智库欧洲战略与国际问题研究中心副主席戴维·富凯表示,特朗普的举动给国际社会尤其是伊核协议其他各方带来难题,因为它们已经以这一协议为基础,与伊朗开启正常关系。由于牵涉到美国与其他大国的关系,美国最终是否退出有待观察。

俄智库“瓦尔代”俱乐部研究项目主任苏斯洛夫认为,虽然特朗普仍将继续抨击伊核协议,但未来美国退出伊核协议的可能性很低。美国今后可能对伊朗采取一些制裁措施,但可能不会恢复伊核协议签署前的全面制裁。如果伊朗对此不作激烈反应,伊核协议将得以继续履行;如果伊朗决定退出,协议将失效。

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