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两国的地区安全利益也出现了危险的分歧。华盛顿把打击“伊斯兰国”列为优先事项,而土耳其更关心可能来自叙利亚和伊拉克库尔德人的威胁——这些库尔德人正是美国在打击“伊斯兰国”行动中的主要合作伙伴。美国决心防止伊朗填补“伊斯兰国”部队被从叙利亚东部赶走而出现的真空。美国也几乎肯定会继续支持那些库尔德人,这有可能激发土耳其的暴力反应。土耳其声援哈马斯、埃及穆斯林兄弟会和利比亚民兵等,与卡塔尔迅速发展军事关系,最近还决定拒绝北约要求从俄罗斯购买防空系统——此举意在表明其对美国的不满——这一切行动只会加剧美土分歧。
皮尤的民意调查显示,现在只有13%的土耳其人对美国的信念抱有积极看法,72%的土耳其人感到美国的实力和影响力构成威胁。当然,土耳其人对美国的态度从来都不是特别正面,但如果没有共同的威胁来维系美土联盟,相互之间缺乏正面观感的问题就会变得愈发明显。
考虑到土耳其在地缘政治中的重要性,可以理解,美国人在一段时间里曾想忽略这些现实。但美国早就该按照土耳其的本来面貌来认识和对待这个国家——一个有自身价值观和优先事项的中东国家——而不是把土耳其当做美国人所希望的那种志同道合、亲密可靠的盟友。这意味着继续在可能的领域与土耳其合作,但不抱幻想,在有分歧的时候坚持立场,比如当埃尔多安开始把美国公民扣为人质时。
今年8月,当埃尔多安在一个政党集会上首次提出囚犯互换的可能时,他大声疾呼:“旧的土耳其不复存在。现在的土耳其是一个新的土耳其!”他是对的,而美国现在也需要如此看待土耳其。
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