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司法介入破除选举“怪圈”
为破除“魔咒”,泰国军方于2006年和2014年两次介入政治,发动军事政变。
虽然政变分别推翻了他信政权和英拉政权,并且政变集团在上台后都迅速修改了宪法,但泰国社会的对立与分裂却无法通过修宪来解决,选举制度的弊端以及选民群体的取向模式依旧存在。
这时,他信的对手引入司法手段,通过司法来解决政治问题。判他信、判英拉,不管判多少年,只要罪名成立,就实质性给他们回国设置了一道司法屏障。只要他们入境泰国,就会被立即监禁。换句话说,只要判了刑,这对“自我流亡”的兄妹就不可能再以正常途径回到泰国。
再无强人充当他信“代理”
军事政变和司法裁决事实上改变了“西那瓦时代”的政治生态与结构。
但十多年来,他信家族的政治理念在泰国一部分人心中根深蒂固,意识形态层面的认知差异不会因法院裁决而迅速消失。泰国政治即将面对的问题是,由谁来接盘他信集团的政治理念,由谁在最快将于明年举行的选举中替为泰党扛旗站台。
至少从目前看,西那瓦家族还没有出现一个能在泰国国内支撑起一片政治天空的强势人物。在缺少新锐人物为其代言的情况下,只能在海外通过社交媒体发声的他信与英拉恐难维系“西那瓦时代”的光环。
现政府治下,泰国经济发展虽然不算快,但社会平稳。疲倦了社会混乱与政治斗争的大多数泰国民众也许会在没有他信与英拉的这段时间里找到新的发展方向。 新华社记者 凌朔
(据新华社北京9月27日电)
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