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对《巴黎协定》“玩暧昧” 美国当真回心转意了?
2017-09-20 08:12:20 中国青年网
白宫退出《巴黎协定》的立场是否足够坚定呢?或许也不见得。中国社会科学院美国问题专家刁大明认为,特朗普政府之所以发出不同声音,有两种可能性:一是特朗普在气候变化议题上的立场出现摇摆,而白宫团队某些成员贸然向媒体放风;二是白宫团队内部的确出现分歧,有些极力推动重返《巴黎协定》的成员提前发声,意图制造媒体意义上的既成事实,分化特朗普与极端保守派之间的关系。如果极端保守派的抨击让特朗普难以接受,特朗普可能真的转变立场。
欧盟不放弃与特朗普重新对话的机会
“特朗普回到《巴黎协定》的可能性不大。特朗普宣布美国退出《巴黎协定》引发不小争议,再次回归压力更大,可能引发的争议也更大。”刁大明说,与退出《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)、推出移民限令等政策不同,退出《巴黎协定》并非特朗普个人风格的体现,而是美国共和党的主流立场。即便特朗普真的宣布返回《巴黎协定》,一定以巨大利益交换为前提,极有可能只是形式上的回归,在具体实施时会大打折扣。
中国国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心主任李俊峰认为,美方的混乱表述其实是对《巴黎协定》其他缔约方的试探,也为美国重回《巴黎协定》索要筹码。
然而,美方“暧昧”的态度并没有动摇其他缔约方落实《巴黎协定》的决心。法国总统马克龙和德国总理默克尔表现出不妥协的立场,均表示不会为拉拢美国放弃原则。
欧盟气候行动与能源委员米格尔·阿里亚斯·卡涅特日前表示,即使不重谈《巴黎协定》,欧盟也会评估美国可能提出的重返协定条件。中国社科院欧洲所国际关系室助理研究员曹慧认为,这表明欧盟没有放弃与特朗普在气候治理上重新对话的机会。
(创意产品工作室:郝斐然、彭莹 综合新华网、中国新闻网、环球网等,部分内容编译自外媒)
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