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外媒:政治分化将持续影响美国资本市场

2017-09-13 10:56:40   新华网

今年8月13日,“团结右翼集会”事件爆发,1名右翼示威者开车冲撞示威者,导致1人死亡、多人受伤。美国媒体和社会各界立刻谴责右翼分子,特朗普却发表声明,谴责了右派示威者和反示威者双方。尽管之后14日特朗普发表了一项批判右翼的声明,但他在次日举行的新闻发布会上,因为媒体追问,特朗普一气之下又声明双方都有责任。

期间,哥伦比亚广播公司做了关于此事的电话民意调查。被问到“特朗普认为双方都有责任的看法是否正确”时,55%的参与者认为特朗普的看法是错误的。令人吃惊的是共和党和民主党支持者的看法大相径庭:68%共和党支持者认为特朗普谴责两方的观点是准确的,但83%民主党支持者认为特朗普是错误的。这个电话民意调查充分体现出美国政治分化之严重。当政治变得越来越像一个零和游戏,议员也越来越少妥协,特朗普政策是否能实现也变得更难预测……

议员不愿意妥协有两个主要因素。首先,近几年新任的许多议员都受到了政治分化的影响,政治理念较为极端。另外,杰利蝾螈导致许多众议员更加担心投票会不会造成党内预备选举失败。根据皮尤研究中心,自从1993年以来,国会议员连任率超过93%。在过去的12次选举中,只有3次一党从另一方成功赢得超过30个席位。

金融危机后,美国的共和党支持者和民主党支持者的政治观念相差度越来越大,比如说:枪支管制、纳税、全球气候变暖。政治分化在众议员中也有出现。共和党中的自由党团就是一个典型的例子。他们很多都是金融危机后选入众议会,深受美国茶党运动的影响,当年不仅不愿意对奥巴马作出任何让步,还把前任联邦众议院议长约翰·博纳赶下了台。

政治分化自从金融危机后变得越来越明显,大多数专家认为这和社会穷富差距扩大有很大的关系。老百姓在面临困境时更倾向于接受极端的看法。特朗普就是一个很好的例子。他在竞选期间把美国的问题一边倒地怪罪给墨西哥非法移民和国际贸易。按照目前美国的经济发展趋势,政治分化行为会持续很久。

当今大多数共和党众议员只需担心来自党内的挑战,特别是那些代表非常保守的选区的议员更不敢妥协。而且,在2010年美国最高法院判决的两个法案,导致超级政治行动委员会(Super PAC)可以不受限制地接受捐款,通过政治性广告等宣传方式来支持候选人。

去年11月特朗普竞选美国总统成功后,标普500指数大涨13%,很重要的一个因素是市场看好特朗普和被共和党控制的国会可以成功出台利于促进经济发展的政策,比如说税务改革、增加基建等。当白宫、参议院和众议院都被同一个政党控制时,按理来讲法案应该很容易被通过。但作废奥巴马医疗法案的失败就是一个很大的反例。虽然在过去的8年,作废奥巴马医疗法案是共和党多年来喊得最响的口号,但在共和党入主国会后,共和党内部却就法案的废除方法进行了大量的争论。在参议院和众议院,属于保守派的议员要求完全废除此法案,但属于温和派的议员要求废除前要准备好取代法案,保证美国3200万民众不失去奥巴马医疗法案带来的医疗保险。而在保守派议员的眼里,温和派支持的替代法案与奥巴马医疗法案大同小异,因此两派很难达成共识。虽然最后众议院勉强的通过了废除奥巴马医疗法案的法案,但7月27日约翰·麦凯恩和另外2位共和党参议员的否决票导致参议院的废除奥巴马医疗的法案失败,这件事情也就不了了之了。

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