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对此,南开大学历史学院哈全安教授在接受本报采访时说:“宗教信仰和意识形态的差异显然不是划分敌我的真实原因。俄罗斯不是穆斯林国家,却也长期被所谓的欧洲拒之门外,于此可见一斑。土耳其被挡在欧盟大门外,是因为土的加入势必会引发欧盟内部重新洗牌,土体量较大,不利于欧盟大国尤其是德、法维持原有的主导地位,进而形成潜在威胁。”
转而向东
据悉,德土是重要的经济伙伴和北约盟友,双方具有传统而密切的联系。大约有300万土耳其裔居民在德国生活。因此,《纽约时报》援引分析认为,德土之间的紧密联系使得双方很难彻底“闹掰”,“争吵只是暂时的”。报道进一步预测,两国关系将在德国大选后恢复。
但土耳其入欧显然不会这么快实现。据英国《独立报》8月24日报道,尽管土耳其依然是欧盟候选国,但事实上入欧谈判已经停止。
哈全安认为,入欧谈判中,土耳其一厢情愿,欧洲大国未见诚意,很难有结果。欧盟接纳新成员,须有利可图。反之,必设置重重障碍。当前国际关系正在重新洗牌,地缘政治格局正随之改变。土耳其向东看已经成为趋势,与欧盟可谓渐行渐远。
英国《金融时报》此前报道,埃尔多安平息国内政变后,与俄罗斯关系渐暖,“由于地区安全上的共同利益,很多事实都促使俄土越走越近”。
面对大门紧闭的欧盟,继续向西还是转而向东?土耳其可能已经有了答案。(文/黄江林)
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