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"
斗法"不断 分析人士:美伊海军在海湾海域直接交火可能性不大
美国海军“霹雳”号巡逻舰与伊朗船只7月25日在海湾水域“狭路相逢”,双方相距最近时不足140米,其间美方舰上人员还发射了警示弹。今年1月,美国海军一艘驱逐舰在霍尔木兹海峡附近被4艘伊朗船只高速逼近后向伊方船只发射了数枚警示弹。今年3月,多艘伊朗军方船只在霍尔木兹海峡近距离接近美军“无敌”号导弹跟踪测量船,迫使其最终改变航路。这几起美伊军舰逼近事件发生后,国际舆论立即予以广泛关注,并对两国间可能发生更严重事件感到忧虑。不过,分析人士认为,美伊在海湾擦枪走火的可能性并不大,双方所作所为更多的是一种心理战术。不过即便如此,美伊双方舰艇如此近距离地进行对峙,也为地区局势带来了极大的不稳定因素。
美伊关系趋紧 伊核协议面临瓦解?
特朗普要撕毁伊核协议并非易事
特朗普自参加总统竞选起,对伊朗的态度就十分强硬,称伊核协议是美国有史以来签署的“最糟糕的协议”。他上台以来,美国以伊朗坚持试射导弹为借口对伊朗不断施压,相继出台了延长制裁期限、限制伊朗公民进入美国等措施。即便特朗普有心撕毁伊核协议,付诸实施也没那么容易。特朗普的意图不仅在国内遭遇阻挠,美国的欧洲盟友们也因为经济利益的驱使,难以与美国“并肩作战”。
既拉又打 美对伊朗政策明朗化
专家:美伊都深知对方底线
专家认为,美国和伊朗都深知对方的底线,达成了某种程度的默契。作为地区大国,伊朗在叙利亚、伊拉克、也门、巴勒斯坦、黎巴嫩和阿富汗等问题上,具有举足轻重的地位。同伊朗在“冲突区”相向而行,符合美国在中东的利益。同时,伊朗又是中东地区有能力和决心挑战美国霸权的潜在力量。通过渲染伊朗的地区威胁,特朗普政府把以色列、沙特、阿联酋、巴林、埃及和约旦等拉回美国领导下的中东联盟体系,构建“中东版北约”。美国在中东地区拉一派、打一派,不仅造成中东国家“人人自危”,在安全上落入“修昔底德陷阱”,还使美国赢得主动,成为“被邀请的大国”。这种“遏制加接触”政策,看似相互矛盾,实际上与特朗普政府务实主义外交政策一脉相承。
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