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相较之下,在本次调查中排名首位的石破茂在自民党内资历很深,他历任日本防卫厅长官、防卫大臣、农林水产大臣、自民党政调会长、自民党干事长等。在安倍第二次当选首相执政期间,石破茂一直比较低调,但他对于安倍的修宪、否认侵略历史等做法并不附和。对于是否会参加2018年自民党总裁竞选,石破茂没有明确表态,不过他曾向媒体表示自己害怕被别人说成是“背叛安倍的家伙”,还称“现在不是一个随心所欲畅谈的时期”。日本媒体认为,安倍政权一直都给人“独大”“傲慢”的印象,由于前不久夺得东京议会选举胜利的小池百合子正是争取到批评安倍政权选民的票才打败自民党的,因此石破茂的发言可能是在争取那些反对安倍的选民,只要选民对安倍政权越来越不满,石破茂就能有机会站出来。此外,安倍比较欣赏的接班人、前日本外相岸田文雄对参选自民党总裁一事的态度比较含糊,保留了回旋余地。
安倍晋三连续两届执政将于2018年期满,日本明年春天将举行各党派争夺执政地位的众议院选举,自民党内部也将举行总裁选举。虽然修改党章后,安倍可以继续在2018年后担任总裁,但鉴于安倍政权的支持率不断下降,若明年春天依然没有好转,则自民党为了保持执政地位,就将探讨党总裁人选变更等事项。虽然目前安倍政权支持率变低,但同其他党派相比,自民党依然支持率较高。所以未来的选举,自民党内各派阀之间的竞争将是最大看点。
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