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经济上,特朗普意在通过与地区国家扩大军售合作规模,谋取巨额经济利益,进而带动美国国内就业。美国将与沙特宣布签署史上最大军售合同,第一笔总额将达到1000亿美元,并且在10年内先后签署3500亿美元合同。在细节方面,合同将升级沙特陆海空军装备,美将向沙特出售滨海战斗舰、“萨德”反导系统、装甲运兵车以及导弹、炸弹、弹药等武器装备。
不难看出,特朗普为其中东行设定了丰硕的预期成果,如果成真无疑将是其“美国优先”理念在外交领域的充分展现。三大预先公布的任务目标相互间有密切逻辑关系,处处体现出特朗普“美国优先”的思维模式。
首先,特朗普将安全利益作为访问中东的重中之重,很明显是为回应美国内支持者的安全诉求。加大当地反恐力度、建立“阿拉伯版北约”等举措与此前提出的“禁穆令”如出一辙,剑锋直指伊斯兰极端势力。只不过特朗普此次行动的地点放在美国境外,针对的对象也更加明确、具体,希望借此多少弥补“禁穆令”被迫中止的损失。
其次,在军事介入上,特朗普虽然比奥巴马表现更为积极,但仍拒绝派大规模地面部队进入中东。他曾公开表示中东是个“巨大、巨大的泥潭”,美国应极力避免。这一点在4月初特朗普下令空袭叙利亚机场事件中体现得淋漓尽致,在惩罚巴沙尔后并没有将推翻叙政权提上日程。同时,特朗普更注重单纯依靠军事手段解决问题,在多个场合都流露出对中东恐怖势力“打了就走”的态度,对战后重建、地区治理等耗时费力的任务不感兴趣。
第三,特朗普表面上称要重振美国在中东的领导地位,与奥巴马的“抽身政策”形成鲜明对比,实际上其政策处处体现出让地方盟友分担责任的意味。分析人士认为,一旦“阿拉伯版北约”组建成功,美国就可名正言顺地要求地区盟友出钱、出兵、出力,充当美国的“马前卒”,在中东维稳、反恐事务上切实负起责任。美国则继续在背后向中东盟友出售大批军事装备,让美国军工企业获利,为本土产业工人创造更多就业机会。文/龚正
(作者单位:中国现代国际关系研究院中东研究所)
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