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两个不一样的6.9%:当前这个6.9%的含金量更高
四、新旧动能力度不一样。动能转换的关键期,新旧动能在经济中规模、比重和释放的能量有所变化。前一个6.9%,大众创业、万众创新处于起步阶段,新技术、新产业、新业态、新模式还比较零散,新动能规模较小、比重较低,难以抵补传统动能下降的缺口。后一个6.9%,供给侧结构性改革推动过剩行业加快市场出清,传统产业加速改造提升,大众创业、万众创新持续升温,新增市场主体方兴未艾,“四新”经济蓬勃发展,工业机器人和电子商务、在线医疗、共享单车等“互联网+”新动能加快集聚扩散,规模比重明显提高。新旧动能接续转换步伐加快,各显其能、共同发力推动经济增长。
五、企业经济效益不一样。市场预期和供求关系变化,企业生产经营扩张信心、意愿和盈利能力差异较大。前一个6.9%,市场需求持续低迷,企业生产经营困难,经济效益持续下滑,利润负增长,生产越多亏损越大导致企业扩张动力和能力均不足。后一个6.9%,工业走出结构性通缩阴影,制造业采购经理指数等先行指标持续向好,市场需求回暖,规模工业主营业务收入利润率提高到多年难得一见的6%以上,利润增速高达20%以上。企业普遍感觉最困难的时间已经过去,发展信心和动力增强,抓住新的发展机遇成为主流认识。
六、政策支撑条件不一样。世界主要经济体宏观经济政策变化,我国政策主基调未变,但方向进行了微调。前一个6.9%,不论是发达经济体还是新兴市场经济体普遍实施量化宽松政策,我国也连续多次降息降准,积极的财政政策持续加码,遏制经济持续下行。后一个6.9%,全球五大主要经济体的央行均发出货币政策紧缩信号,美联储已连续加息4次,欧洲、日本等零利率、负利率时代也将宣告结束。我国积极财政政策在优化支出结构的同时,更加注重减税降费,切实减轻企业负担。稳健的货币政策根据形势变化调整为稳健中性,广义货币供给(M2)9.4%的增速刷新历史新低。资金紧平衡状态下,宏观动力和微观活力不减,市场主体正在追求更高质量和效益的增长。
综上所述,两个6.9%不是经济冷热程度的不一样,而是两者面临的宏观动力、微观活力、市场预期和供求关系不一致。虽然后者更多表明经济周期在变化、结构在优化、质量效益在改善,但经济运行中存在的诸多问题、困难和矛盾尚未得到根本性解决。如果说在前一个6.9%形成过程中更多发挥的是政策逆周期调节作用,遏制经济下行势头,促进经济平稳运行。那么在后一个6.9%的基础上,就应顺势而为,因势利导,更多地化解结构性矛盾,巩固经济“稳”的格局,夯实“进”的基础,促进经济平稳健康发展。
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