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你担心饭碗会被拿走吗

2017-09-14 09:06:23   新华网

“现在美国3亿多人口中从事农业生产的不到1%,将来工农业直接从业人口降到0.01%也没什么好奇怪的。”吴江说,“劳动密集型的时代终将成为历史。只有从程式化的工作中解脱出来,充满创新创造活力,活成独一无二的‘人’,才是我们无可取代的竞争力。”

3、劳动者也须转型升级

“虽然机械性的、可重复的脑力或体力劳动,将被人工智能取代。但会有更多新的、深度的、创意性的人才需求出现。”中国银行业协会首席经济学家巴曙松认为,“人工智能时代的到来,必定会产生一些‘没听说过’的、‘智能化’的新岗位,比如已经被行业认可的‘自然语言处理’‘语音识别工程师’,以及‘机器人产品经理’等。”

中国人才研究会学术委员会副主任沈荣华表示,传统行业的“旧岗位”也需向“人工智能化”发展,如大多数保安、翻译、记者会被人工智能取代,但剩下的少数人,可能收入会更高,比如能操控安保机器人又有丰富安保经验的安保负责人,比如垂直于某个细分领域的翻译人才,比如专门写深度报道的新闻记者。

当然,对于“智能代工”催生的新的岗位,并非人人都有机会。“每一轮科技革命都会带来新一轮工作革命,人工智能将大量淘汰传统劳动力,很显然也会有不少行业,会因为人工智能的兴起而消亡。”陶庆华说,“但也要看到,人工智能会创造高端的新型的产业需求,从而带来劳动者的转型升级。所以,只有新型劳动者,才能适应人工智能时代。”

陶庆华指出,尽管一些工作岗位被取代的弊端会被全新职位的出现化解,但是19世纪工业革命的经验表明,转变过程是极其痛苦的,人口从乡村大量涌入城市工厂,在当时的欧洲引发持续动荡。各国政府花费了上百年时间构建新的教育和福利体系,才最终适应这种转变。“这就提醒我们,应提前对两大挑战准备好预案:一是如何帮助工作者学习掌握新技能;二是如何让后代做好知识和思想储备。”他说。

这一次的转变似乎更为迅速,当前科技传播的速度可比200多年前快多了。“我们必须提前行动,做好迎接新的工作岗位的准备。”陶庆华指出,所幸《规划》已明确:即日起,从小学教育、中学科目,到大学院校,通通逐步新增人工智能课程,建设全国人才梯队。“这一要求,既紧迫又必要。是时候,我们要重新思考教育,将其视为一个终身过程。这意味着我们不能再奖励死记硬背,而应该奖励好奇心和实验,它们是发现和理解未知事物的基石。”他说,“如果你想把握未来,现在必须开始有意识提升自己,方能赶上时代的潮流。”(罗旭)

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