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“帕卡”造访、4省区强降雨,为何台风近期频繁登陆?
通常,台风登陆的幕后推手有两位:海温与副热带高压,一个管台风的出生,另一个管台风的后天培养。
先看海温,8月下旬,南海地区海温偏高,和温暖广阔的西北太平洋一起组成了热带对流和热带扰动的温床,我国也迎来了今年的第二个台风活跃期。
不过,和今年7月下旬的第一个台风活跃期时6个气旋共舞的场面相比,截至目前,第二个台风活跃期仅生成2个台风,并不算多,因此,台风频繁登陆我国并不能完全归咎于海温,这个锅更应该由副热带高压来背。
副热带高压和台风的相互配置,往往决定着台风的移动路径。当副热带高压较弱时,台风可能会穿过副高北上,但当副高强盛时,台风则只能乖乖听话,沿着副高边缘移动。今年8月,副热带高压偏强,位置偏西且十分稳定,在副高下方偏东气流的引导下,台风更容易影响华南沿海,尤其是广东地区。
此外,作为我国海岸线最长的省份,广东还直接面向南海、太平洋,为台风提供了更充裕的“着陆点”。换句话说,台风登陆广东的密码难度最低。数据统计也显示,广东是我国台风登陆最多的省份。1949-2016年,广东共遭遇181个台风,其中达到台风及以上级别的有61个。
而在8月底至9月上旬前期,南海及西北太平洋还会有一个到两个台风生成,不过登陆我国的可能性不大。
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