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地震和气象专家解析:地震云是否真实存在?哪些天气因素影响震后救援?
气象因素会引发的地质灾害
张芳华:地震发生后,对救援工作产生不利的天气因素有降水量、温度等多个方面。当出现降水天气,不仅为缺少帐篷等物资的群众带来不便,而且会造成路面泥泞,对交通产生影响。地震后如再遇强降雨天气,极易发生滑坡、泥石流等次生灾害,尤其九寨沟地区以山地为主,一旦发生次生灾害对救援工作都会产生较大影响。气温方面,如果温度高,被困人员和救援人员体力极易消耗,更容易滋生疾病;而温度低会对露宿野外的群众带来不便,在缺少御寒物资的情况下容易发生感冒或冻伤。此外,目前正值汛期,强对流天气较多,震区也需要注意防雷。
总体来看,未来几天九寨沟震区和精河震区总体天气较为平稳,对救援工作影响不大。
具体来看,8月11日白天到夜间,九寨沟县震区阴有小雨,局地中到大雨,注意防范山洪、泥石流等次生灾害;12日阴天有分散性阵雨转多云;13日至15日基本无降雨。8月11日夜间至12日夜间,精河震区多云转小雨(累计3-7毫米),南部山区有大雨,5级左右西北风,会对救援有影响,并且气温随之下降;13日,震区有零星小雨转晴;14日至15日基本无降雨,风力不大,气温适宜。
四川九寨沟震区公路地质灾害气象风险预报图。
记者:目前,网上流传着一些对“地震云”的说法,请您谈谈地震和云到底有没有关系?“地震云”是否真的存在?
张芳华:目前并没有发现地震和云之间有联系的理论和依据。大家利用云来预测地震是否发生非常不科学。像地震这类地壳运动对大气环流是否有某种潜在影响,有待于进一步的科学研究和论证,即便有影响也比较细微,在做天气预报时这种影响是忽略不计的。而这种尚未地震,就以天降奇象、云生异变来预测的方式很不靠谱,我们认为“地震云”的假设是不成立的。
张晓东:从目前的研究情况看,没有任何科学事实能证明云的变化与地震有直接关系,也没有科学研究可以证实地震的发生与天气变化有直接相关性。
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