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不过,由于高空冷涡切断,去年这场雨下的时间更久、更均匀。对比“7·21”,北京地区降雨过程持续了55小时,比“7.21”(20小时)降雨时间长35小时。但此次降雨强度比较均匀,小时雨量一般有10~30毫米,远远弱于“7.21”强降雨过程的40~80毫米的小时雨量。
尽管雨势不强,从下表对比不难发现,北京全市平均雨量、城区平均雨量、累计雨量最大值都是去年的“7·20”更胜一筹。所以,这种“长情”式的降雨最后比“轰轰烈烈”下的雨更多。
从动力角度看,今年北京的这次过程是高空冷涡+低空低涡的驱动模式。由于高空冷涡移动相对缓慢,所以降水可能会以粗暴的强对流形式开场,长情式的持续降水接棒。
面对即将到来的暴雨 这几点要get
(1)这场雨很大,是北京今年以来最强降水;
(2)对流降水开场,声势浩大,分布不均,要谨防强对流天气;
(3)22日晚和23日晚可能出现两个降水高峰,普遍有大到暴雨,过程累积量大,可能会出现道路积水,对交通出行尤其是早晚高峰不利;
(4)北京东北部密云和河北承德一带有可能挑战6月单日降雨量极值;
(5)北京西部山区和东北部可能雨量更大,危险系数高,要尽量远离山区和低洼地区。(文/韩旭 信欣)
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