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媒体:扩大供地能降低一线城市房价吗

2017-06-19 04:41:47   经济参考报

从现实看,大多数特大城市,土地扩大供给的空间已经很小了。通过扩大土地供给来平抑大城市房价,只能是一个望梅止渴式的良好愿望。并不是有空地就能形成有效供给,也不是说房子可以一直盖下去。这还需要考虑到区域的环境、交通、公共基础设施等的承载能力。仍以北京为例,尽管有人“惊奇”地发现在四环到五环之间、五环到六环之间还存在不少空地,二环以内甚至还有大片平房,从而认为它还有很大的供地潜力,这实际上是一种误解。如果北京把这些空地都盖上了房子,把容积率进一步提高,那交通拥堵问题将极度恶化以至于无解。在私人汽车时代,我们的特大城市都不同程度存在人口过载或土地过度开发现象,其现实表现是交通的极度拥堵。如果要进一步提高土地开发强度,只能放弃私家汽车出行,而改走公交出行战略,否则交通可能要完全瘫痪。但私家汽车出行,又是我国国民百年中国梦的一个重要组成部分。禁止出行私家车与中国梦相悖,最终或是不得人心、无法推行的。在这种背景下,特大城市如果要提高或至少保持现有宜居水准,不仅没有条件扩大供地,还需要把现有的存量住房拆掉一部分以疏散人口。典型的手段如通过整治开墙打洞、拆除违建、迁走批发市场等低端产业等形式,把低端产业吸附的人口导出。这项运动,在我国的一些特大城市正在轰轰烈烈地开展。所以,在未来的很长一段时间内,中国的特大城市都没有扩大住房供给的潜力,甚至还需要拆除一部分老旧、违章住房,以缓解交通环境压力、维系城市宜居水平。

总之,只要人口城市化和大城市化的动力不发生根本性改变,高房价几乎就是现阶段我国特大城市的宿命。不扩大土地供应,中国特大城市住房市场必将逐步陷入“香港化”,具体表现为超高房价和低居住水平。而扩大土地供应,随着更多人口的涌入,中国特大城市住房市场迟早也将逐步“香港化”,同时还要掉入“摊大饼”陷阱无法自拔。该如何抉择,可谓仁者见仁,智者见智。雄安新区的设立,也正是基于跳出特大城市这一两难选择困境的一种新尝试,力求为人口稠密地区解决住房供求矛盾探出第三条道路。

(作者单位:中国社科院财经战略研究院)

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