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4月CPI涨回“1时代” 专家称不会引发通胀担忧

2017-05-11 04:45:58   中国网

不过,中国银行国际金融研究所研究员周景彤表示,由于近期钢铁、煤炭、铜和原油等能源原材料行业价格在下降,再考虑到中国经济增长动能可能放缓以及PPI翘尾因素逐月变小的影响,未来一段时间PPI涨幅还将继续回落。

实际上,此前业界担心的CPI与PPI巨大的剪刀差,在4月份已经缩小至5.2个百分点。在周景彤看来,PPI涨幅放缓,将减轻其向CPI传导的压力。

而在民生银行首席研究员温彬看来,受去年基数效应影响,预计二、三季度CPI涨幅进一步回升、PPI涨幅进一步回落。也就是说,CPI与PPI之间的“剪刀差”还将进一步缩小。

货币政策收紧的必要性已下降

CPI重返“1时代”,在不少业内人士看来,并不会引发通胀的担忧。

周景彤表示,未来一段时间,能源原材料等大宗商品价格同比放缓环比转正为负,既反映了其前期涨幅较大面临回调的压力,更反映了宏观经济动力趋弱大环境下对相关商品的需求放缓。

“近期通胀无需多虑,未来货币政策进一步收紧的空间和必要性在下降,将把更多注意力放到防范金融风险上来。”周景彤表示。

温彬也认为,今年以来,为实现金融部门去杠杆、降低系统性金融风险,市场利率不断走高,但从下一步经济走势看,货币政策将继续保持稳健中性基调不变。

北京晨报记者 姜樊

来源:北京晨报

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