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中国该不该斥巨资造大型对撞机 得回答这4个问题

2016-09-06 07:06:34   澎湃

尽管如此,在争论中国该不该建造大型对撞机时,要回答的是:造价几何?是利是弊?能解决科学难题吗?值不值得?这四个问题。

造价几何?

在此次杨振宁和王贻芳关于大型对撞机的公开讨论中,巨额的建造成本被摆放在争议的显眼位置。

杨振宁认为,根据以往各国建造对撞机的经验,比如美国中止了项目,浪费了30亿美元;欧洲核子研究组织(CERN)现运行的大型强子对撞机LHC耗资100亿美元,对撞机的建造成本是无底洞。他预估,中科院高能所建议的超大对撞机预算将高于200亿美元(1335亿人民币)。

在反驳文中,王贻芳详细地算了一笔账,并表示“有成熟的估价、建造、管理经验”。在王贻芳团队的规划中,正负电子对撞机和质子对撞机将先后建设。不包括土地、“七通一平”等,预计在2022-2030年竣工的正负电子对撞机工程造价约400亿人民币。质子对撞机是否建设建立在正负电子对撞机是否有新物理迹象的前提上,工程造价在1000亿人民币以内。其中,中国将承担70%的费用,即大约300亿人民币(每年30亿)和700亿人民币(每年70亿),但不包括未来的通货膨胀。

王贻芳还强调,高能所在北京正负电子对撞机等超过亿元的大型加速器及探测器工程中,“均按工期、指标完成,实际造价与预算相比,连5%都没有超。”并因为质子对撞机的启动条件是正负电子对撞机有所成绩,王贻芳认为这不会是无底洞。

巨额建设资金将如何筹得?据《自然》杂志报道,王贻芳的团队在去年得到科技部3500万人民币的资助,用于大型强子对撞机项目的开展,但在7月,发改委拒绝了该项目下一轮8亿人民币的资助请求。在国际高能物理大会(ICHEP)上,王贻芳表示将专注于提高国际社会对该项目的兴趣。

是利是弊?

杨振宁认为,对撞机的项目必将挤压其他基础科学的经费。

但王贻芳认为,目前中国的基础研究经费占研发经费的比重仅5%,低于发达国家的15%,这意味着基础研究经费仍有大约每年1000亿人民币以上的增长空间。

此外,王贻芳认为,对撞机的项目会拉动国内科学仪器的发展,且和其他基础科学并不矛盾,“事实上这个投入也没有大大改变各领域的投资比例,从长期来看,是使各领域的比例与国际上基本一致(目前国内粒子物理、核物理比例严重偏低是一个事实)。”

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