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美智库预言明年9大冲突:首提中美在台海发生危机

2018-12-19 07:51:16   参考消息 

原标题:美智库报告预言明年9大冲突:首提中美或在台海发生危机

参考消息网12月19日报道 美国智库外交学会发布了年度《优先预防事项调查报告》,报告确定了美国在今后一年中的9个预防冲突优先事项。其中,对美国本土的威胁,包括网络攻击和恐怖袭击,都被列为头等大事。

美国外交学会网站12月18日发表了第11份美国年度《优先预防事项调查报告》,确定了美国在今后一年中的9个预防冲突优先事项。

由美国外交学会下属的行动预防中心(CPA)进行调查的这份报告,要求外交政策专家根据未来一年冲突发生或升级的可能性以及对美国国家利益的潜在影响,对30起正在发生或可能发生的冲突进行排名。

在今年的报告中,包括网络攻击、朝鲜半岛、美伊冲突、南海问题、恐怖袭击、叙利亚局势、委内瑞拉局势、也门内战以及阿富汗局势共9项事项被认为是“顶级”风险。

报道还称,行动预防中心主任保罗·B·斯泰尔斯表示:“年度《优先预防事项调查报告》的独特之处在于,它定期提供对世界各地冲突和不稳定性的前瞻评估,帮助决策者把注意力集中在最重要的风险上。”

报道还指出了今年报告的主要结论,包含以下几点:

2019年,尽管大规模杀伤性恐怖袭击可能仍是一个持续存在的问题,但是对美国关键基础设施和网络发动极具破坏性的攻击才是与国土安全相关的头号突发事件。

尽管中美之间的地缘政治对抗和可能爆发的冲突越来越令人担心,但该地区只有一起事件——南海的军事对峙——被视为头等大事。

在今年的调查报告中,对于美俄可能发生对抗的焦虑并没有增加。

美国外交学会网站12月18日消息还指出,美国第11份年度《优先预防事项调查报告》确定了美国在今后一年中的9个预防冲突优先事项。

今年的调查结果可以看到一些有趣的观点。比如,对美国本土的威胁,包括网络攻击和恐怖袭击,一直都被列为头等大事。其次,尽管专家和外交政策制定者越来越担心中美之间爆发冲突的可能性,但只有一个涉及中国的意外事件——南海地区武装对抗,该事项被认为是头等关切事项。然而,调查报告首次提及中美两国在台湾问题上可能发生的危机,并将它列为“第二等关切事项”。

报道称,另一个值得注意的结果是,调查报告表明,对南亚前景的担忧有所减轻:南亚危机被列为“第三等关切事项”。此外,巴基斯坦潜在的政治不稳定——这在前几年一直令人担忧——没有被认定为重大风险,因此没有被纳入今年的调查。

责任编辑:刘敏丹 CN012
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