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最近一段时间,美方把向中国施压当成解决朝核问题的捷径,想当然地认为只要中国愿意“帮美国的忙”,就能够“管住朝鲜”。然而现实是,美国的军事打击威胁都阻止不了朝鲜核导计划,中国的制裁又怎么可能带来奇迹呢?
华盛顿需要认真地反思对朝政策,做出决定性的调整。那就是,要在对朝施加压力的同时,为朝鲜留出它放弃核导会比坚持当下路线要好得多的真实选择。
平壤最关心的是安全,美方一直拒绝向朝方提供可信的安全承诺,拒不停止让朝鲜感受到严重威胁的美韩联合军演。美方的态度近乎是要求朝鲜做单方面让步,这使得平壤认为它走发展核导的险棋,比放弃核导更有可能在美韩的强大军事压力下“九死一生”。
华盛顿长期毫不掩饰对平壤的敌视,美国及韩日等盟友显然很乐见朝鲜政权垮台,并有采取某种行动推动出现这一局面的意愿。华盛顿应当清楚一点,其对朝政策带给平壤的不安全感要比朝鲜发展核导带给美方的不安全感严重得多。
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