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另外,此次东京议会选举的结果还将影响安倍对解散众议院进行大选的判断。众议院的议员任期于2018年12月届满。在此之前肯定要解散众议院实施大选。计划2020年施行新宪法的安倍为尽快实现修宪,需要在众参两院维持三分之二的“修宪势力”,以便提出修宪动议。然而,如果在自民党持续遭遇强力逆风的情况下迎来下届众议院选举,将无法维持三分之二这个数字。
与安倍关系密切的前内阁成员就此次的东京众会选举结果表示:“年内无法解散众议院进行大选”。其观点认为,在正讨论于2018年的例行国会上提出修宪动议的情况下,要想维持三分之二的修宪势力,要在临近众议员任期届满时才能进行选举。如果提前解散众议院且大选失败,可能会在2018年9月总裁任期届满前被迫下台。
不过,如果安倍内阁支持率一直降低,可能要被迫采取更为迅速的应对措施。也有观点认为,朝野各党中有部分势力想在下届众议院选举中与东京都知事小池百合子合作进入国政。一旦自民党在东京都议会选举大量落选,东京都内的众议院小选举区基础瓦解,那么必须在小池知事等做好准备之前尽快解散众议院。
报道称,如果是这种情况,安倍就可能无法确保三分之二的修宪势力,修宪动议前景将变得不透明。如果优先维持政权,就需要重新大幅调整安倍一直想推进的修宪战略。
责任编辑:杨晓晨 CN067
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