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安倍也想搞“联俄制华”?普京笑了

2016-12-17 07:22:31   侠客岛

此前,日本一直反对日本企业或资本进入南千岛群岛,认为这相当于在实质上承认了俄方对当地的主权。但现在,日方主动提出可以在争议领土进行共同经济活动,虽然有个“不伤害各自领土立场”的前提,但还是相当于向后退了一大步。对此,俄方欣然接受。从效果看,俄方在领土问题上的立场没有任何松动,日方也可以借此向国内宣传普京此访的意义,但“领土议题”本身未获任何实质性进展。

实际上,俄日领土问题比媒体通常报道得更为复杂。在日本国内,有些人不仅仅想要四岛,还想要千岛群岛的余下部分,以及萨哈林岛(即中国旧称的库页岛)南部。在历史上,日本曾对萨哈林岛进行过殖民统治,当时命名为“桦太”。而在俄罗斯国内,同样有人对日本的此类意图高度警惕,反复提醒政府不要与日方达成任何领土协议,以免刺激日方“得陇望蜀”之心。

而在领土问题之上,还有另一个重要议题——俄日和平条约问题二战结束后,俄日之间始终没有签署类似于《旧金山和约》之类的和平条约,双方在法理上仍处于战争(停火)状态。自上个世纪50年代起,苏联与日本的和平条约谈判就久拖不决,日本国内也将解决领土问题作为签署和平条约的前提。而今,在领土问题进展困难的情况下,和平条约恐怕也仍将继续拖下去。

经贸合作前景几何?

对于此次普京访日,日本国内的另一个关注点是经济合作。一方面,日本希望加强在俄能源投资,利用俄罗斯东西伯利亚和远东地区的丰富油、煤、气矿藏,增加日本的能源进口选项;另一方面,日本也希望参与俄罗斯在远东地区的基础设施建设和经济开发,从俄罗斯的油气收入里“分一杯羹”。对于日方的投资需求,俄罗斯方面可谓“喜闻乐见”。就在10月下旬,俄中央政府的远东发展部提出了一项总额1万亿卢布(约合150亿美元)的庞大计划,其中列举了诸多等待日方“埋单”的项目,其中小至蔬菜大棚基地、健康疗养中心,大至煤矿、机场,甚至包括连接萨哈林岛与北海道的铁路·公路两用跨海大桥及跨海输气管道等宏大项目。

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