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1941年夏 斯大林为何对德军的侵犯守口如瓶?

2016-05-04 14:47:13   人民网

1941年6月22日,这个最可怕和最悲惨的日子,几乎给每个苏联家庭都带来无法弥补的损失,并且留下许多无法解答的问题:

德国在半年的时间内陆续在苏德边境集结军队,为什么斯大林对于侦察机关、军队和外交人民委员部的反复警告不屑一顾,行若无事?既然集结在边境的苏联军队在1941年6月22日凌晨对于防卫、进攻和撤退均毫无准备,那么,他们原来是准备干什么的呢?

为什么德国飞机屡屡侵犯边界,在苏联上空飞行,却不准将其击落?实际上起了涣散军心作用的塔斯社1941年6月13日的声明为何要发表?

同苏联签订了两年互不侵犯条约的德国,为什么要在1941年6月22日撕毁条约?

为什么国防人民委员部的第一号军事指示严令各部队不得因受到挑拨对可能出现的攻击予以还击,无特殊命令不得擅自行动,而第二号指示则明令禁止苏军跨越国界?

为什么在1941年6月22日凌晨,苏联边防部队没有炮弹、子弹和燃料?此前为何不准他们占领边境沿线的前地和设防区?为什么6月22日苏联政府守口如瓶,直到敌军连续轰炸和发起进攻8小时后,苏联人民才得知战争爆发的消息?

为什么最先宣布这一消息的,不是斯大林本人?为什么直至1941年7月3日,苏联人民才听到他的讲话?

亚历山大·尼古拉耶维奇·奥索金系1939年生人,曾任无线电研究所所长。战争爆发时,他还是个牙牙学语的幼童,其父尼古拉·奥索金曾在苏德边境服役,任重炮营营长,当时所在部队驻扎在距边境约30公里的夏季营地。每当回忆起战争,尼古拉不知为何总是对战争初期避而不谈。1955年儿子问起此事时,尼古拉说,怎么会发生1941年6月22日那样的事情,谁也搞不清楚,唉,怕是没有真相大白的那一天了。不料当时16岁的儿子口出狂言:等我长大了一定得搞清楚。父亲听后,唯有苦笑。

2007年10月,俄罗斯时代出版社推出《伟大卫国战争的重大秘密》一书,书的副题为“战争爆发的新假说”,一时洛阳纸贵。书的作者正是奥索金,这是他多年来持之以恒,潜心研究的成果。作者在书中援引大量档案材料,试图破解1941年6月22日这个不解之谜。那么,他心目中的谜底究竟是什么呢?作者提出了如下的假说:

希特勒明白德国单枪匹马无法战胜英国,便建议斯大林也参加登陆英伦三岛的战事。德国登陆作战的兵力不足,苏联则拥有5个空降师、400架运输机和大量货轮,可轻而易举地通过铁路和运河将军队送到北海。苏德谈判于1940年11月12日至14日在柏林举行,从表面看似乎毫无结果,实际上苏德高层已达成了秘密协定。斯大林的当务之急,就是在德国的帮助下,让苏军途经波兰和德国开赴北海之滨(同时德军也应途经苏联开赴土耳其、伊朗和伊拉克),到达北海后他再决定进攻方向——或同德军一起进军伦敦,或同英军一起进军柏林。斯大林认为这样一来,苏联就可以在欧洲西部,而不是在本国边境参加第二次世界大战。因此,凡是对这场无需任何战斗即可挺进北海的绝妙战役可能起破坏作用的一切,斯大林统统封杀。他曾严厉警告将军们,凡对德军稍有挑衅者,小心“脑袋搬家”。

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