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美国总统罗斯福充分认识到了这一计划的危险性。1943年,他在开罗会议期间对他的小儿子直言不讳地说:
假如没有中国,假如中国被打垮了,你想一想有多少师团的日本兵可以因此调到其他方面来作战?他们可以马上打下欧洲,打下印度——他们可以毫不费力地把这些地方打下来,他们并且可以一直冲向中东??日本可以和德国配合起来,举行一个大规模的夹攻,在近东会师,把俄国完全隔离起来,割吞埃及,斩断通过地中海的一切交通线。
罗斯福的这段话从中国坚持抗战、拖住日军主力这个角度,认为如果中国军队被打垮,德日会师印度,对世界反法西斯战争来说,其结果将是灾难性的。
如果我们换一个角度分析:蒋介石接受德国拉拢,与德合作,命令当时在缅甸与日军作战的中国远征军进攻印度,从而促成两个法西斯会师,其结果不也同样是灾难性的吗?幸亏,蒋介石没有这样做。
美国著名的政治学家汉斯·摩根索在其巨著《国家间政治》开篇说道:“像所有的政策一样,国家间的政策是为了利益而争,无论国际政策的最终目的是什么,利益总是最直接的目标。”中国的战略原料虽然对纳粹德国具有很大的吸引力,但中国在远东的战略价值当时无法同日本相比拟。国际形势迫使希特勒在中日之间做出选择,这也是中德关系由高潮到破裂的症结所在。
参考文献
《蒋介石与希特勒:民国时期的中德关系》,马振犊,东大图书股份有限公司;《从胶澳被占到科尔访华:中德关系1861-1992》,吴景平,福建人民出版社;《找寻真实的蒋介石:蒋介石日记解读2》,杨天石,华文出版社;《三十年代中德关系初探》,张宪文,《历史档案》,1990年第2期
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