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相比土耳其和沙特的模糊和混乱,叙利亚政府和俄罗斯的想法单纯得多——任何一国的军队入境参战,都不是来帮助自己的,既然如此,又何来欢迎不欢迎?无论是美国、沙特、土耳其或欧盟的一些国家,都希望俄罗斯做出让步,但问题在于,俄罗斯根本没有任何后退空间。因为所谓的后退,就是放弃巴沙尔政权和俄罗斯在地中海的最后一个永久据点。
比起这几位,唯一更加混乱的可能就是美国了。美国需要应对的有“伊斯兰国”、叙利亚基地组织、其他极端组织以及外部黎巴嫩真主党和伊朗的外部影响。这在道德上是清晰的,在战略上却是不连贯的,无法形成合力。目前美国只能无选择支持反对派,但是援助的效果非常不理想。美国在中东需要面对多个棘手的问题,这些问题如同一团乱麻混杂在一起,难以理清。如果将叙利亚问题放到美国国内来看,它既不像南海问题那样看起来充满火药味,也不像大选问题那样直接决定个人命运,自然也就没有那么急切需要做出彻底“决断”。
周六,库尔德“人民保护部队”在北部阿勒颇省的多处据点遭到土耳其军队炮击,这可以被看作是土耳其军队介入叙利亚的一种前奏,我们虽不大可能在之后直接目击土耳其军队以万乘之师大举南下控制叙利亚大片土地的举动,但这种在边境的积极作战行动将会更加频繁。至于叙利亚的整体走向,笔者依然认为不会发生彻底变化,在俄罗斯和伊朗的强力支持下,巴沙尔还能坚持很久。
责任编辑:汤鹏霏 CM015
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