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美搅动中东产生了难民,却难摆平
美也难以化解欧洲难民潮。近半年来,欧洲难民潮猛烈冲击欧洲多国,尤其是德国。众人皆知,这些难民大都来自中东,是美国推行民主价值观,大搞“颜色革命”的结果。美国搅乱了中东,但又无力使之平静,只能让欧洲代吞苦果。因此,欧洲媒体对美指责之声不断,认为,美是此次难民潮的罪魁祸首。德国镜报斥责美国“可耻”,将难民拒之门外。美国务院发言人只好表态,说明情况,提出将接受1万名叙难民的计划。这毕竟杯水车薪。德国马歇尔基金会分析师伊恩·勤瑟尔指出:“如果大量难民涌入,而美国坐视不理,可能会分裂跨大西洋关系。因为很多欧洲人都认为难民潮是美国干预叙利亚政策失败的后果。”
巴勒斯坦建国问题,美“压以促和”难奏效
对于巴勒斯坦问题,美难以充分压以促和。奥巴马经常大谈推动中东和平进程,支持巴勒斯坦建国。然而,因美一味偏袒以色列,对巴以争端奉行双重标准,根本不可能取得成果。尤其是在美国总统大选即将来临之际,奥巴马执政时日不多,更不愿开罪颇具影响力的美犹太院外集团,以免影响民主党总统候选人的票仓。因此,巴以争端将持续下去,短期内,双方不会恢复和谈。
美中东、南海两头忙,难平衡
从战略上看,美国难以妥善处理加速战略东移同继续主导中东之间的矛盾。美国表示,21世纪是美国的太平洋世纪。自然要加大投入,且正加紧进行。军事上,美加快了对关岛军事设施建设和部署;强化同日本、澳大利亚、印度的联盟,拼凑亚洲北约促成TPP(跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定),力图主导国际贸易规则的制定权;经常拿东海、南海说事,煽动、怂恿日本、菲律宾等国发难,制造事端。
最近,美军舰又到南海活动,无事生非。其目的无非强化其地区老大地位,遏制中国。然而,中东有美重大核心利益,涉及美全球战略,既要维护以色列、盟国的安全、美元的霸主地位,又要坚持反恐、保持地区“乱而可控”,继续主导地区事务。目前,美国既怕中东大火,又怕亚太飓风,总是平衡不好这两边的关系。俄罗斯军事介入叙问题,重创IS,颠覆了美的“再平衡战略”,使之匆忙应对,又要回过头来,加大对中东的投入。(作者是中国人民外交学会前副会长、前驻中东大使、中国国际问题研究基金会理事)
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