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美专家:台湾韩国对美国风险大好处又少 应抛弃

2016-06-21 09:13:39   观察者网

美国如今的盟友体系应当经过仔细选择与甄别,而修剪多余“枝叶”的一个很好的起点就是美国与同盟国之间的安全承诺。美国如今的同盟体系过于庞大、杂乱,不少同盟关系更是早已过时,适当的“剪枝裁叶”能使之恢复生机,这实属美国的当务之急。

一个关键的任务就是先确定修剪哪些“枝叶”,并且以什么顺序去修剪。有三个合理的标准来确定优先级别:第一,首先废除那些价值最低、用处最小的同盟;第二,优先废除最有可能给美国带来潜在危险的同盟,例如美国对它所作的承诺有可能将美国拖入一场不必要的战争;第三就是先废除那些令人厌恶的同盟,比如某些国家在国内和国际上的行为严重违反了美国的价值观和人类道德的基本准则。

根据第一个标准,美国可以摆脱掉许多与北约小成员国之间的联盟,例如黑山和斯洛文尼亚。有人问这样的小国能给美国的经济和军事带来什么潜在利益,答案是美国什么也得不到。卡托研究所高级研究员道格·班多曾言简意赅地总结过黑山的贡献,“波德戈里察(黑山首都——观察者网注)在军事上毫无价值(Podgorica is a military nullity)”。确实,美国已经养成了与弱国随意结成无价值联盟的坏习惯,结盟就跟加脸书好友般随意,而我们应时刻意识到:安保承诺是一桩严肃的生意。

对美国来说,黑山和斯洛文尼亚仅仅是低价值盟友,但它们不太可能和邻国卷入武装冲突,也就不太可能给美国带来麻烦。运用第二个标准将会给美国带来更大的好处,也就是甩掉那些安全风险等级较高的盟友,美国与台湾、韩国的联盟就属于这一类。台湾和韩国都与近邻有着尚未解决的争端,并且这些争端都有逐步升级的可能,届时美国将被拖入武装冲突的泥潭,而这些冲突和美国自身核心利益却几乎毫无关系。美国的决策者(包括国会,这一机构很大程度上已经放弃了它关于战争与和平的相关权利)需要认真去思考美国是否真的值得为了盟友的利益去对抗那些强大的国家,最终将美国卷入战争。

当然,也有可能某一个同盟国同时符合第一个和第二个标准。波罗的海国家就是如此,这些小国对美国在经济或战略上均无特殊重要性,而它们几个世纪以来一直与沙俄帝国(包括其继任者苏联)纠缠不清。它们目前与莫斯科的关系充其量可以说是不温不火。然而美国却选择通过北约给予这样又小又脆弱的盟国以安全保障,并且用“轮换制”在当地驻军以兑现承诺。因此,波罗的海国家应当被列在符合第一和第二标准的前几位,美国对它们的安保承诺应当有所限制。

最后一个选择是着手于削减对那些令人可憎的同盟国的军事承诺,一些严重侵犯人权的国家,比如沙特阿拉伯和埃及就是显而易见的例子,就沙特阿拉伯这个盟国而言,该国政府的外交政策经常损害美国利益。

沙特和埃及显而易见是适用于第三个标准的,而更加复杂并值得仔细衡量的是美国与诸如土耳其、匈牙利和以色列这些国家之间的同盟关系。土耳其和匈牙利的国家专制统治已经发展到了令人震惊的程度,而以色列对于巴勒斯坦人长久以来的态度应该受到世人谴责。

责任编辑:张海潮 CM013
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