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中将:美韩对朝作战有两大节点 中国要做万全准备

2016-03-31 10:03:26   

美韩和朝鲜都在实施“战争边缘政策”,这使双方对撞的可能性大大增加。而且一旦发生对抗,恐怕不是“擦枪走火”那么简单,也不是任何一方能够控制局面的。

美韩对朝打击的可能时间节点和级别

美国暂时还未动手,可能是考虑到:一、奥巴马政府任期明年就将结束,其长期收缩的战略很快就可圆满收官,不想再发动可能控制不住烈度和规模的战争。二、中俄都不同意在半岛发生战乱。如果美韩主动进攻,要顾虑半岛东侧和西侧海域都在俄中军力威慑之下。不经中俄同意或默许,美韩海上力量生存和行动将受到严重威胁。据美媒称,俄军近日在其远东滨海地区进行了登陆演习,不排除牵制美韩的意图。三、美国与中国经过艰苦谈判终于就联合国对朝制裁决议达成一致,制裁效果需要一段时间才能显现,现在迫不及待动手将很难说服中国。还有一个似是而非的顾虑,就是朝鲜对韩国首尔报复性炮击。我倒觉得这是朝鲜的虚张声势,因为目前朝鲜射程真能到达首尔的只有几百门170毫米谷山大炮、240毫米以上的火箭炮和一些短程导弹,但三八线北侧纵深30-40公里大都是平原地和起伏地,无法部署炮兵,而谷山大炮射速极慢,对方容易展开炮火反击。朝方炮火确能给首尔造成损失,但韩国如果下决心打,这点损失尚能承受。

朝鲜长期遭受国际社会制裁,虽然这次制裁加强,但可能仍需一定时间才能见效,届时恐怕朝鲜已经实实在在具备了对美国本土的核打击能力。美国能容许吗?同朝鲜具备对美核打击能力相比,美国的那些顾虑可能就不足为“虑”了。

据我判断,美韩对朝鲜的军事打击可能分为四个级别:一是小规模的,主要打击朝卫星发射场、研制工厂以及相关技术设施,破坏核弹的运载能力;二是中小规模,除仍要打击朝导弹设施外,主要打击朝核设施和核武仓库,阻止核弹小型化进程,破坏其核武能力,但这要冒着造成核污染的风险;三是大中规模,主要打击已标定的数百个军事目标,瘫痪朝鲜的主动进攻和反击能力;最后是大规模进犯,用武力推翻朝鲜政权。

我认为,美韩对朝军事打击的时间节点,除了在这次美韩军演4月30日结束前,下一次可能是在朝鲜进行第五次核试和发射重返大气层的导弹之后。朝鲜如果进行第五次核试验和洲际导弹试验,既说明联合国这次制裁的失败,又证明朝鲜已具备对美本土的打击能力。这一天可能不会太远,中国应根据这两个时间节点做好万全准备。(作者是原南京军区副司令员)

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