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兰德推演中国5天“击败日本”

2016-01-28 10:22:23   环球网

日媒报道称,西拉帕克通过推演得出5个结论:一,作为日本的盟国,美国面临“被卷入战争”的危险。二,在许多方面无法履行对日防卫义务。尽管可以使用导弹防御系统,但中国导弹数量之多难以估计,日本面对中国很脆弱。三,如今的中国已拥有现代海军、众多攻击力很强的导弹、实力雄厚的空军及尖端无人机。在10年前,日本可以凭借自己的实力防御解放军,如今时代不同了。四,如今美国航母在中国反舰导弹面前显得很脆弱。五,日美中的民族主义使事态恶化,严重影响到决策者的选择,也是一种致命的因素。

西拉帕克最后总结说,美国若插手日中钓鱼岛之争,只能导致战略上的巨大失败。或许,美国对钓鱼岛进行危机管理的最好手段就是“坐视不管”。

中国军事专家李杰27日接受《环球时报》采访时表示,美国兰德公司搞这种军事推演是“别有用心”,它把推演结果向全球公布有两个目的:一是故意渲染中国军力发展已经对东亚甚至亚太地区构成威胁,“5天内打败日本”表明“中国军事威胁”加大;二是提醒日本要想控制钓鱼岛,还得不断增加军力,同时解禁集体自卫权和修宪,否则让美国短时间内接手这个烂摊子根本来不及。

李杰认为,兰德公司抛出这个推演议题,其实就是想试探中国的反应,看看美国“不介入钓鱼岛”后中国的态度如何。他认为,钓鱼岛牵扯到美日军事同盟,如果钓鱼岛一旦失手,美军的“第一岛链”就有个大缺口,就形同虚设了。所以美国现在积极搞“亚太再平衡”战略,不可能不介入,不可能坐视不管,任由中国发展壮大。兰德推这个命题的用心,就是“看看中国的态度,摸摸中国的底线”。

责任编辑:张海潮 CM013
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